The Supreme Reason to Re-Elect Obama

The 2012 election cycle is now in full swing, and while I'd love to just hibernate and ignore it, it's clear that the results do truly matter. The Washington Monthly has a series on what a republican victory would mean that's well worth reading, although also quite frightening. While I know many liberals who are quite disappointed in President Obama (the only reason that I'm not disappointed is that I held really low expectations), it's important to assess what are the realistic options, before giving up on his re-election.

One of the greatest long term impacts of any President is the appointment of Supreme Court Justices. In his first term, Obama filled two vacancies, as did shrub before him. Overall, the current court is dominated by republican appointees, which is clearly reflected in the conservative, pro-corporate philosophy of it's decisions. And the next presidential term of office could potentially see vacancies that impact the courts makeup for decades to come.

While Supreme Court Justices receive the finest medical care on the planet, and historically live longer than the rest of the population, age does catch up to everyone. Four of the nine current Justices are in their seventies, an age where physical and mental decline are a common occurrence, and may not remain on the bench through the next presidential term.

First on the list of likely departures is Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who's 78 (79 in March) and has been battling cancer. She has been one of the most consistently liberal voices on the court since her 1993 appointment by Bill Clinton, and it's extremely unlikely that she will serve another four plus years.

Antonin Scalia is 75 years old (76 in March), and has been serving since 1986. A staunch (I would say extreme) conservative, he seems to be in robust health. It's conceivable that he would consider retiring if a republican is elected president, but is a good bet to remain on the bench through a second Obama term.

Anthony Kennedy is also 75 (76 in July), and is arguably the most significant member of the court. He's moderately conservative, and represents the swing vote in many decisions. While not substantiated, I've read multiple reports that he is likely to retire in relatively few years for reasons of age and health. He's been serving since 1988.

Stephen Breyer is 73 (74 in August), and is rumored to be considering retirement. Moderately liberal and fairly quiet, he's considered a very thoughtful, intellectual jurist. I think the likelihood of him remaining through the next presidential term is under 50%, as he often sounds frustrated with the current court.

(Justice bios here:http://www.blogger.com/www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx. Of course, any of the other five Justices might choose to retire or suffer an untimely demise, but I chose to focus on the four most likely potential departures.)

The Washington Monthly piece is a useful group of articles. Addressing what a republican victory would mean for the Supreme Court, The conservative takeover will be complete. By Dahlia Lithwick is well worth reading.

The current court is viewed as a balance between four liberals and four conservative, with Kennedy somewhere in between, but is more really four moderates, four extreme conservatives, and Kennedy. That balance could be changed dramatically in the next presidential term.

Neither of Obama's appointee's, Sonia Sotomayor or Elena Kagan, are all that liberal, which is in keeping with his own moderate philosophy. And I would expect that any future justice appointees would also be moderates. But compare that to the philosophy of the current republican presidential candidates. Then consider how they would likely choose to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court. It's a scary proposition for the coming decades. That alone is enough to make me support Obama in 2012.

Deaths in the News

Today's big news is about the death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), which is certainly appropriate. He served in the senate longer than any other in America's history. Heck, he began his senate career before I was born, so a long time ago. A huge and controversial legacy, to be sure.
But I also think that attention should be paid to Martin Ginsburg, Husband Of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Dies At 78, as I wonder how it will impact Ms. Ginsberg's ongoing battle with cancer. She certainly has been courageous in her battle, but she's looking worse and more frail of late, and losing her husband certainly wont help. As the Kagan hearings begin, there is a very likely possibility that Obama may soon have another Supreme Court vacancy to fill.

The Stevens Retirement

Justice John Paul Stevens announced his retirement. Not a big surprise, as he's about to turn ninety, and has been on the court for 34 years.

This is a big reminder why presidential elections matter. As this will be the second Supreme Court appointment of this presidential term, imagine what the alternative might have been. If St. Sleazy McCain were in the White House, we would be looking at the "Extreme Court" for decades to come. Regardless of how you feel about Obama on other issues, at least his court nominees will likely maintain some moderation on the bench.

Stevens is considered a "liberal" giant (though he's actually very moderate, he looks liberal when compared to the conservative extremists beside him), and no new justice will be able to match his stature for many years. The court will still be dominated by the five conservatives, and the current congressional split guarantees that Obama's nominee wont be very 'liberal' in order to get confirmation.

Regardless of who Obama chooses, the political circus will be awash with overheated rhetoric. Expect a very loud, tough fight.

Justice Stevens Planning to Retire?

Pure speculation, but it looks like Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens may be set to retire after this court term. As the oldest Justice at 89, it wouldn't be that much of a surprise. The cause of the speculation is that Stevens has hired fewer clerks than he usually would:

WASHINGTON — Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens has hired fewer law clerks than usual, generating speculation that the leader of the court's liberals will retire next year.

If Stevens does step down, he would give President Barack Obama his second high court opening in two years. Obama chose Justice Sonia Sotomayor for the court when Justice David Souter announced his retirement in May.

Souter's failure to hire clerks was the first signal that he was contemplating leaving the court.

Stevens, 89, joined the court in 1975 and is the second-oldest justice in the court's history, after Oliver Wendell Holmes. He is the seventh-longest-serving justice, with more than 33 years and eight months on the court.

In response to a question from The Associated Press, Stevens confirmed through a court spokeswoman Tuesday that he has hired only one clerk for the term that begins in October 2010. He is among several justices who typically have hired all four clerks for the following year by now. Information about this advance hiring is not released by the court but is regularly published by some legal blogs.

Stevens did not say whether he plans to hire his full allotment of clerks or whether he will leave the court at the conclusion of the term that begins next month. Retired justices are allowed to hire one clerk.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jp9jrwkjig6vQnONc-Zyk9lChX8wD9AF1GS02

One of the major factors in my support for Obama over McCain was Supreme Court appointments. While Obama's replacement for Stevens wouldn't alter the courts balance (still 5-4 conservative), a McCain appointee would further skew the court to the right. Knowing that there would be openings on the court (although Souter's retirement was less expected) due to Stevens age and Ruth Bader-Ginsburg's cancer (although she's stated her intent to remain on the bench), I saw it as imperative to have a Dem as President. I'm not all that happy with Obama, but I'm much more comfortable with him making appointments than McCain. That would have been scary.

Don Your Robes, Justice Sotomayor

Congratulations to our newest Supreme Court Justice. The vote was 68-31 (Byrd was wheeled in; Kennedy still out), with no surprises.
I don't think she'll be all that liberal, perhaps more conservative than David Souter, and her seating won't change the balance of the court (still controlled by the five conservatives). But it's nice to see the court becoming more diverse.

I'm Sold on Sotomayor

So Obama has nominated Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court; all I can say is: great choice! As President Obama pointed out, Ms. Sotomayor's credentials include one of the most important decisions of my lifetime: she saved Baseball:

WASHINGTON — Federal judges are rarely famous or widely celebrated. Yet during a brief period in 1995, Judge Sonia Sotomayor became revered, at least in those cities with major league baseball teams.

She ended a long baseball strike that year, briskly ruling against the owners in favor of the players.

The owners were trying to subvert the labor system, she said, and the strike had “placed the entire concept of collective bargaining on trial.”

After play resumed, The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that by saving the season, Judge Sotomayor joined forever the ranks of Joe DiMaggio, Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson and Ted Williams. The Chicago Sun-Times said she “delivered a wicked fastball” to baseball owners and emerged as one of the most inspiring figures in the history of the sport.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/us/15sotomayor.html

We all know that the right wing is going to do everything they can to trash her (or any other Obama nominee), as they've already told us:

This month, as it appeared increasingly likely that Sotomayor would be Obama's nominee, the judge has been the target of a whisper campaign, and many leading far-right activists -- including Limbaugh and Fox News personalities -- started the offensive against her weeks ago.

For what it's worth, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said earlier this month that Sotomayor would face stiff GOP opposition if she were nominated for the high court. Since that would be true of any Obama nominee, it hardly matters.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/

So whenever a winger starts attacking, we should immediately ask them "Why do you hate Baseball?"; and by extension America. Ask them if they also oppose 'Mom and Apple Pie'. Maybe I'll start a new PAC: "Baseball fans for Sotomayor". Who's with me?