Monday, April 23, 2007

Drying up the rivers

Southwestern North America and other subtropical regions are going to become
increasingly arid as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases.

I'm rather busy preparing for my river trip, but I would be remiss if I didn't note this study:

Projections of anthropogenic climate change conducted by nineteen different climate modeling groups around the world, using different climate models, show widespread agreement that Southwestern North America - and the subtropics in general - are on a trajectory to a climate even more arid than now.

Seems that my home region is in real trouble.
Imminent drying of the Southwest and subtropics in the models is such a robust
result because it does not depend on poorly understood and highly parameterized
parts of the model (such as cloud physics) but instead arises as a response of the large scale atmospheric dynamics - which we think is quite well represented in models - to a warming world.

So I better enjoy my river while I can.

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