Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Scoring New Hampshire

Every political blogger is starting the morning by analyzing New Hampshire, and I don't want to be left out. Given that the professional pundits are all over the map, anything I say can be considered equally profound (or not).
There's a lot of surprise at Clinton's victory. There shouldn't be. While the polls showed Obama leading before the vote, the race was still close. I thought Obama would win by a small percentage; instead he lost by a small percentage. There is a ton of speculation as to "why", but two factors stood out to me. The youth voter turnout was not as high as in Iowa, renewing the question of how reliable it is. And Clinton's political machine appeared to do a very good job of getting out the vote. Obama's vote totals were close to the projections; Clinton's were much higher than forecast. Given that New Hampshire has on site voter registration, it looks to me that the Clinton team did a very good job.
Democrats should be very excited about the turnout. The Republican turnout was down, below even the turnout of 2000. The Democratic turnout set a new record.
As I've said multiple times, the compressed primary schedule makes this a long game. The pundit class hoped to choose the winner in the early innings, but that isn't happening. The winners wont be declared before super duper Tuesday, February 5th, and may not even be decided then. There is a lot of game left.
Added: A whole bunch of data here: Who supported Hillary?



Click the graphic for more data.

How much info do you need?

2 comments:

gandhisxmas said...

I think Hillary's crocodile tears serves her well. I laughed when I saw it, because I know it was a calculated move ( tied in with "now that hurts my feelings..."). Very good move by the Clinton people!

Mauigirl said...

My husband said, when he saw the tearful episode, "Who taught her how to cry?"