Thursday, August 23, 2007

The Latest NIE

Forget the White House/Petraeus propaganda report that's scheduled for 9/11. That report will merely repeat the word "progress" about a brazillion times. Much more meaningful is today's National Intelligence Estimate:

The Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months and its security forces have not improved enough to operate without outside help, U.S. spy agencies conclude in a new assessment of the country's political and military fortunes.

Despite some uneven improvements, the analysts concluded that the level of overall violence is high, Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled, and al-Qaida in Iraq is still able to conduct highly visible attacks.

"Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively," the 10-page document, a declassified summary of a more detailed National Intelligence Estimate, concludes. A copy was obtained by The Associated Press in advance of its release Thursday.

The report represents the collaborative judgments of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organization of each military service. It comes at a time of renewed tensions between Washington and Baghdad, and as the Bush administration prepares a mid-September report on how its troop buildup in Iraq is working.

Full text of the report here:

I just finished reading it, and was struck by the inability to "spin" the situation. While the report claims some "positives", they are almost immediately outweighed by the following "negatives". Taken as a whole, we're fucked in Iraq. It's really that simple.

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