IBAR: fuck it

I'm giving up on my deconstruction of the IBAR. It's just too frustrating. Bottom line: They tried to put as positive a spin on Iraq as they could and it still looks really bad. When your own propaganda shows more failure than success it's hard to spin it. Our shrub tried to highlight the areas where progress was "satisfactory", but reading the report itself shows a very low bar for such a grade. You can read the report here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/07/20070712.html
Shrub will continue to say "progress" no matter what the facts say.

7.12.07:
Bush to Declare Progress in Iraq on Some Benchmarks

The Bush administration will assert in the next few days that progress in carrying out the new American strategy in Iraq has been satisfactory
on nearly half of the 18 benchmarks set by Congress, according to several
administration officials.

Where have I heard it before? It sounds familiar. Where have I heard the refrain that "we're making progress" in Iraq before? Oh, right. Every year for the last four years of this war.

6.28.07
"The colonel leading the assault says we have denied al Qaeda a major bastion. The
city is cleared. The challenge, of course, is going to be for coalition and Iraqi forces to keep it that way. But we're making progress in Operation Phantom Thunder."

4.4.07
"So while we're making progress, it also is tough. And so the way
to deal with it is to stay on the offense, is to help these Iraqis."

6.9.06
"And victory in Iraq is a country that can sustain itself, govern itself and defend
itself. That's the definition of victory, and we're making progress toward that goal."

4.4.06
"And I'm convinced we're making progress there. But I do urge the
folks on the ground to get that unity government in place, so that the Iraqi
people have confidence in their future."

3.22.06
"And we're making progress when it comes to training the troops.
More and more Iraqis are taking the fight."

3.21.06
"We're making progress because of -- we've got a strategy for victory, and
we're making progress because the men and women of the United States military
are showing magnificent courage and they're making important sacrifices that
have brought Iraq to an historic moment -- the opportunity to build a democracy
that reflects its country's diversity, that serves its people, and is an active
partner in the fight against the terrorists."

1.10.06
"The training of the Iraqi police is an enormous task and, frankly, it hasn't always
gone smoothly. Yet we're making progress -- and our soldiers see the transformation up close."

10.16.05
"We're making progress toward peace. We're making progress toward an ally that will join us in the war on terror, that will prevent al Qaeda from establishing
safe haven in Iraq, and a country that will serve as an example for others who
aspire to live in freedom."

10.05.05
"So on the one hand, we're making progress when it comes to training Iraqis
to take the fight to the enemy, we're bringing the enemy to justice, we're on
the offense. On the other hand, democracy is moving forward in a part of the
world that is so desperate for democracy and so desperate for freedom."

8.23.05
"I'll remind the people that we're making progress on two fronts -- a
political front. The Iraqi people are working hard to reach a consensus on their
constitution."

8.11.05
"And we're making progress training the Iraqis. Oh, I know it's hard for some
Americans to see that progress, but we are making progress."

5.20.05
"But one of the things that's important to understand is the Iraqi government
understands that as civilian governments change, there needs to be stability in
the military and a chain of command that links top to bottom. And General Casey
knows we're making progress toward establishing that chain of
command."

6.17.04
"And we're making progress toward that goal. We've been there -- it's been 14
months since the fall of Baghdad, and the work has been hard and difficult."

5.24.04
"We're making progress. Yet there still is much work to do. Over the decades of
Saddam's rule, Iraq's infrastructure was allowed to crumble, while money was
diverted to palaces, and to wars, and to weapons programs."

5.5.04
"And we're making progress. There are a few people there in Iraq that want to
claim credit for any situation on the ground, but the people in Fallujah are tired of foreign fighters and radicals and extremists preventing them from living a normal life."

4.30.04
"And so we're making progress, you bet. There's a strategy toward
freedom."

4.13.04
"But when you think about where the country has come from, it's a relatively short
period of time. And we're making progress."

11.27.03
"Well, one way you measure is how many people you bring to justice. And they feel like they're making good progress."

8.8.03
"The American people know that we laid out the facts, we based the decision on sound intelligence and they also know we've only been there for a hundred days. And we're making progress."

7.30.03
"And so we're making progress. It's slowly but surely making progress of
bringing the -- those who terrorize their fellow citizens to justice, and making
progress about convincing the Iraqi people that freedom is real."

4.24.03
"And we're making progress. There's tangible, visible progress on the ground
there in Iraq."

And it's truly scary that 1 in 4 approve of him.

IBAR: Benchmarks 1-3

OK, I've washed my brain. I'm taking this in smaller chunks for the sake of preserving some remnant of sanity.
Benchmark:

(i) Forming a Constitutional Review Committee and then completing the constitutional review.

grade:

Assessment: The Government of Iraq has made satisfactory progress toward forming a Constitutional Review Committee (CRC) and then completing the constitutional review.

thoughts: They've formed a committee to review the constitution, but they haven't actually done anything. Given everything else that is going on in Iraq, I'm sure the Iraqi people will be glad that there's "satisfactory progress" toward benchmark #1

Benchmark:

(ii) Enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification
reform.

In Recommendation 27, the Iraq Study Group emphasizes the need for United States Government support of reintegration of former Ba’athists and Arab nationalists into civic life. The New Way Forward strategy makes de-Ba’athification reform an integral part of the United States Government’s Iraq policy. The Embassy has
pressed hard on all political elements to move forward.

grade:

Assessment: The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification
reform.

thoughts: Not much re-integration? How about some revenge? Under Saddam, you had to join the Ba'ath party to get a government job (the communist model), so a lot of party members weren't enthusiastic Ba'athists. The upper level members of the party are mostly dead, imprisoned, or have fled the country. It's really only the lower level workers (mostly Sunni) for whom this is an issue.

Benchmark:

(iii) Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable
distribution of hydrocarbon resources to the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shi’a Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner.

grade:

Assessment: The current status is unsatisfactory, but it is too early to tell whether the Government of Iraq will enact and implement legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources to all Iraqis.

thoughts: Ah, the oil law. This is the one benchmark that shrub has pushed the hardest on. The parliament has had some meetings on this, usually leading to one group or another walking out. The actual law benefits oil companies, not the people. Since almost all of Iraq's oil is in Shia and Kurdish lands, the Sunni's are (rightly) afraid they'll be shut out. It's unlikely that the current Parliament will be able to resolve an oil law any time soon.
Notice what the first 3 benchmarks have in common? All three are American goals, not necessarily Iraqi goals. As I pointed out in my initial IBAR post, we're grading the progress based on shrub's priorities more that on Iraqi priorities.
Time to take another break.

IBAR: The Overview

The Initial Benchmark Assessment Report (hereafter IBAR) starts with an overview of four areas being assessed with a summary of achievements and shortfalls:
1. Security:

Security: The security situation in Iraq remains complex and extremely challenging. Iraqi and Coalition Forces continue to emphasize population security operations in Baghdad, its environs, and Anbar province to combat extremist networks, and create the space for political reconciliation and economic growth. As a result of increased offensive operations, Coalition and Iraqi Forces have sustained increased attacks in Iraq, particularly in Baghdad, Diyala, and Salah ad Din. Tough fighting should be expected through the summer as Coalition and Iraqi Forces seek to seize the initiative from early gains and shape conditions for longer-term stabilization.

...These new operations are targeting primarily al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) havens in Baghdad, Babil, Diyala, and Anbar provinces. While AQI may not account for most of the violence in Iraq, it is the organization responsible for the highest profile attacks, which serve as a primary accelerant to the underlying sectarian conflict. We presently assess that degrading AQI networks in these critical areas ‑‑ together with efforts to degrade Iranian-backed Shi’a extremist networks ‑‑ is a core U.S. national security interest and essential for Iraq’s longer-term stability. Since January of this year, AQI has proven its resiliency and ability to conduct high-profile, mass-casualty attacks, mostly targeting Shi’a population centers through suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIEDs) attacks. The number of suicide and SVBIED attacks in March and April approached all-time highs, further exacerbating sectarian tension and making political deals more difficult to close.

Complex and challenging? No Shit! Notice the emphasis on al-Qaida, the universal bogeyman, and Iran. But the report is at least correct in the need for more stability. Shells landing inside the Green Zone almost daily and roughly 100 civilians dying each day aren't exactly positive signs, but the report claims "some progress". I disagree.

2. Political Reconciliation:

Political Reconciliation: Moving key legislation depends on deal-making among major players in a society deeply divided along sectarian, ethnic, and other lines. Meaningful and lasting progress on national reconciliation may also require a sustained period of reduced violence in order to build trust. For this reason, most of the major political benchmarks identified in the legislation ‑- i.e., final passage of monumental pieces of
legislation through Iraq’s Council of Representatives by consensus ‑- are lagging indicators of whether or not the strategy is succeeding or is going to be successful.

Iraq's politics are far from stable, with coalitions changing almost daily (do I need to say this? Go to http://www.juancole.com/ for more). What is clear is that al-Maliki's government is in peril, the Parliament has not been able to achieve much of anything, and the situation is still in flux.

3. Diplomatic Engagement:

Diplomatic Engagement: Iran and Syria have continued to foster instability in Iraq. As noted, Iran funds extremist groups to promote attacks against Coalition and Iraqi forces, and the Iraqi Government. We see little change in Iran’s policy of seeking U.S. defeat through direct financial and material support for attacks against U.S. military and civilians in Iraq. Iran is engaging in similar activities in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, foreign fighters (especially suicide bombers) continue to use Syrian territory as their main transit route to Iraq. The Syrian Government also allows major insurgent
organizers and financiers to operate in Damascus.

Blame Iran and Syria. While the report does remark on the summit at Sharm el-Shiekh (which didn't accomplish very much) as a positive, it mostly complains about Iran and Syria. This administration doesn't "do" diplomacy, we just tell other countries what we want them to do.

Economics and Essential Services:

Economics and Essential Services: The economic picture is uneven. Key economic indicators paint a modestly improved picture ‑‑ unemployment has eased slightly and inflation is currently abating. Government revenue is steady due to high oil prices, but the Iraqi Government has not yet made needed investments to increase oil and refining output. Private-sector activity is picking up in some areas, notably the more than $1 billion that have been invested in wireless telecoms, but investors remain wary due to poor security and the continuing need for a stronger legal framework. The Iraqi Government has begun to show resolve in initiating budget execution and capital investment to restore services, but citizens nationwide complain about government corruption and the lack of essential services, such as electricity, fuel supply, sewer, water, health, and sanitation.

This is a major disaster area. In Baghdad, electricity has dropped from about 4 hours a day last year to about 2 hours a day now. It's worse in the rest of the country. Safe drinking water is scarce. Prior to the invasion, Iraq was a functioning modern society in spite of the sanctions. In short, this is not progress.

Overall, the report tries very hard to put some positive spin on all four areas. It fails.

OK, later I'll be tackling the 18 "benchmarks" and the grades the report gives on each. I need to take a break to wash my brain.

Reading the IBAR

I'm reading the "Initial Benchmark Assessment Report" that our shrub says "shows progress" in Iraq (we've heard that before). The full text is here:http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/07/20070712.html.
While I hope to deconstruct some of the specifics over the course of the day, here's some initial responses:
1. Very weak standards for what they call "satisfactory". All 8 benchmarks where the "progress" is graded "satisfactory" would be better described "not a total disaster".
2. On 2 benchmarks, the report takes a pass, saying "too soon to tell". Maybe.
3. The 8 benchmarks where the progress is graded "unsatisfactory" include the oil law and various security benchmarks. You know, the important stuff.
4. Some of the "evidence of progress" sited are directly contradicted by the facts on the ground (i.e. reductions in sectarian violence).
5. Lots and lots of references to al-Qaida in Iraq, crediting AQI with much more influence than most analysts would.
6. It's all well and good for the US to set 18 benchmarks for Iraq, but these are American goals, not necessarily Iraqi goals. Reading the Iraqi press I conclude that their goals aren't quite the same as ours, especially the political goals.
7. There's a hell of a lot of propaganda mixed into the report. Our shrub likes to politicize everything.
Like I said, I'll try to get into more detail over the course of the day.
added:graphic from WTF