Thought for Food

One of the most basic things we as taxpayers should expect from our government is that our food is safe. Thanks to the anti-government administration, this is no longer the case. Seems to me that safe groceries should be a basic right.

Updated: 7:13 p.m. MT Feb 26, 2007

The federal agency that’s been front and center in warning the public about tainted spinach and contaminated peanut butter is conducting just half the food safety inspections it did three years ago.

The cuts by the Food and Drug Administration come despite a barrage of high-profile food recalls.

“We have a food safety crisis on the horizon,” said Michael Doyle, director of the Center for Food Safety at the University of Georgia.

Between 2003 and 2006, FDA food safety inspections dropped 47 percent, according to a database analysis of federal records by The Associated Press.

FDA ‘just can't manage the job’
That’s not all that’s dropping at the FDA in terms of food safety. The analysis also shows:

• There are 12 percent fewer FDA employees in field offices who concentrate on food issues.
• Safety tests for U.S.-produced food have dropped nearly 75 percent, from 9,748 in 2003 to 2,455 last year, according to the agency’s own statistics.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17349427/

Feeling the outrage? Rick Perlstein is:

E. coli conservatives

Submitted by Rick Perlstein
on Tue, 2007-04-17 20:35.

First, they came for the spinach.

I remember the day last September. The supermarket had a new kind of salad dressing, one that looked like it would taste good with spinach. I went to the produce section to buy a bag. But they all had been recalled. Three people had died from E. coli contamination from eating spinach. I decided I could live without the spinach.

Next they came for the peanut butter, and I didn't pay much attention. I don't much like peanut butter.

Then they came for the tomatoes. Then the Taco Bell lettuce.

Then the mushrooms, then ham steaks, then summer sausage. I started worrying.

Then, they came for the pet food.

I remember the sinking feeling, hearing that dogs and cats had died eating contaminated food. Then the flash of guilt—had we poisoned our dogs? I remember hearing the name of the manufacturer, my wife searching the web frantically for
a catalogue of its products, the stab of fear when we found the name of the food our own dogs eat. Then the wave of relief—it was only canned food; our dogs eat dry. I began investigating more. One of the things I learned was that the Food
and Drug Administration hasn't been able to confirm "with 100 percent certainty" that the offending agent didn't go into human food. Then it neglected to reveal the name of the tainted product's U.S. distributor.http://commonsense.ourfuture.org/e_coli_conservatives

Sex and the CIA

I've learned that to be a really good scandal, it must include sex. The Cunningham/Wilkes/Foggo scandal is about to get the sex it needs for the public to notice.

I recently received an advance copy of Seth Hettena's Feasting
on the Spoils: The Life and Times of Randy “Duke” Cunningham, History's Most
Corrupt Congressman, which will be published this July and which I highly recommend. In addition to being a terrific piece of political reporting, the book is filled with juicy details concerning the seamier side of the Cunningham affair, otherwise known as “Hookergate.”

I was particularly interested in stories Hettena unearthed about Kyle “Dusty” Foggo, whom former CIA director Porter Goss had named as executive director, the agency's number-three official. Foggo resigned last year not long after FBI agents raided his home and office. The Feds suspected that Foggo, who was later indicted, had funneled CIA contracts to his long-time friend Brent Wilkes, the defense contractor who is accused of bribing Cunningham with money and prostitutes.

Some of the more sensational stories in Hettena's book—and he has on-the-record sources—got me thinking. First, didn't Foggo's frequent indiscretions (for example, flashing his agency ID to jump the line at a strip club) raise red flags about his character? Second, wasn't Foggo's outlandish sexual behavior—like, say, publicly performing oral sex on a hooker (hired by Wilkes) at his own bachelor party—just the sort of thing that makes intelligence officials potentially vulnerable toblackmail by a hostile spy service? Third, might it be possible to cynically point to such revelations and use them as a hook for a blog item that combines sex and espionage?

You already know the answer to #3. As to #1 and #2, I spoke with a number of former CIA officers and asked them about the use of sex as a weapon of espionage and whether Foggo-scale misbehavior would typically be deemed a security risk or cause other problems. http://harpers.org/archive/2007/04/sb-sex-and-the-cia

The original scandal was pretty basic: Wilkes bribes Cunningham and Foggo, gets government contracts for millions. Cunningham gets caught, goes to jail. Page B17 story. But if we can get some sex in the story? A1 with screaming headlines.

The contract, previously reported to be worth between $2 million and $3 million, was a no-bid, unneeded deal to distribute water in Iraq. In other words, it was right up Wilkes' alley, since he specialized in selling unneeded and drastically overpriced equipment and services to the government via acquaintances like the now-incarcerated Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) .http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/cats/dusty_foggo/

Besides the fun of seeing someone called "Dusty" go on trial, maybe the public will start to notice the corruption that has become so pervasive in the current administration.

Guns (and butter)

I'm trying to figure out what to say.
I'm a gun owner, but I'm also a liberal who believes that gun responsibility comes first. I grew up with guns, but my dad and my uncle made sure that I knew what I shot. I may say more later, but the V.Tech massacre is not the gun debate.

For Whig

Because I don't have an email address for frequent commenter Whig.

1,902.7mpg

Too cool!

The team from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo today won the first Shell Eco-marathon
Americas with a gasoline-fueled combustion engine vehicle that delivered 1,902.7
mpg.

The Eco-marathon challenges student teams to design and build the most
fuel-efficient vehicles, which are tested in a mileage challenge. The Eco-marathon concept started as the Shell Mileage Marathon in 1939 after a friendly wager between employees of Shell Oil’s research laboratory in Wood River, Illinois, as to whose car could get the better fuel mileage. Shell has been running the current Eco-marathon for more than 20 years in the Europe and the UK, and brought a version of the event to the US for the first time this year.http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/04/cal_poly_wins_f.html#more

Say Hello To

In the Skippy tradition of welcoming new blogs, say hello to Pollywog http://www.pollyblog111.blogspot.com/.

She's a friend, and a really smart lady, so I look forward to her bloggy goodness.
And Sweaterman, watch out.

Sheer Insanity

The Virginia Tech massacre is beyond horrible. As someone who until recently worked at a university, I can only imagine the whole communities horror and grief. My sympathies to all the victims of this senseless tragedy.

al-Sadr's power play

Moqtada al-Sadr is pulling six members out of Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet. As I've posted before, this bears watching.

The six cabinet members belonging to the Sadr Movement in Nuri al-Maliki's
government are set to resign. The movement's 32 parliamentarians will continue to attend sessions of the legislature, but presumably would vote against the prime minister in a vote of no confidence. The Sadrists want the Iraqi government to insist on setting a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, and are annoyed that PM al-Maliki publicly rejected that approach recently when he was in Japan.

As always, Juan Cole provides the best insight:http://www.juancole.com/

I now count those who would probably vote against al-Maliki if the question was
called this way: The Iraqiya List of Iyad Allawi: 25; The Fadhila Party: 15; the National Dialogue Front (secularist Sunnis): 11; Sadrists: 32. That is 83. I don't know what the Iraqi Accord Front (fundamentalist Sunnis) would do. They have 44 seats. If they voted against, that would be 127. It would take 138 to cause the government to fall, which means that if the Sunnis were disgruntled enough, and if a few (11) other Shiites defected, even al-Maliki's powerful coalition of Kurds and fundamentalist Shiites could not protect him. I think the Iraq government is gradually collapsing; likely the end state is just dysfunctionality rather than anything dramatic. There was a Lebanese parliament all through the Civil War there, it just did not do anything and couldn't meet (the parliament building lay on the Green Line along which the fighting raged).

And the media, of course, repeats "radical":http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070416/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

BAGHDAD - Cabinet ministers loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr quit the
government Monday, severing the powerful Shiite religious leader from the U.S.-backed prime minister and raising fears al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia might again confront American troops.

al-Sadr is a power player in Iraqi politics, and until we leave Iraq we better figure out how to deal with him.

Though in his early thirties and only a hojatalislam ("proof of Islam") - one rank below an ayatollah in the Shiite religious hierarchy - Muqtada al-Sadr has pursued a political strategy no other Iraqi politician can match.

The sources of his ever-expanding appeal are: his pedigree, his fierce nationalism, his shrewd sense of when to confront the occupying power and when to lie low, and his adherence to the hierarchical order of the Shiite sect, topped by a grand ayatollah - at present 73-year-old Ali Sistani - whose opinion or decree must be accepted by all those below him. (For his part, Sistani does not criticize any Shiite leader.)

Muqtada's father, Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, and two elder brothers were
assassinated outside a mosque in Najaf in February 1999 by the henchmen of President Saddam Hussein. The Grand Ayatollah had defied Saddam by issuing a religious decree calling on Shiites to attend Friday prayers in mosques. The Iraqi dictator, paranoid about large Shiite gatherings, feared these would suddenly turn violently anti-regime.

Muqtada then went underground - just as he did recently in the face of the Bush administration's "surge" plan - resurfacing only after the Baathist regime fell in April 2003; and Saddam City, the vast slum of Baghdad, with nearly 2 million Shiite residents, was renamed Sadr City. As the surviving son of the martyred family of a grand ayatollah, Muqtada was lauded by most Shiites.

While welcoming the demise of the Baathist regime, Sadr consistently opposed the continuing occupation of his country by Anglo-American forces. When Paul Bremer, the American viceroy in Iraq, banned his magazine Al Hawza al Natiqa ("The Vocal Seminary") in April 2004 and American soldiers fired on his followers protesting peacefully against the publication's closure, Sadr called for "armed resistence" to the occupiers.http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/041607D.shtml

The Padilla Trial

Jose Padilla's trial begins today on charges of aiding terrorism. Fine. But when he was arrested in 2002?

In 2002, then-Attorney General John Ashcroft announced Padilla’s arrest and said
authorities had thwarted an Al Qaeda plot to detonate a radioactive bomb in a major city. Those allegations have been dropped.

I've been outraged about the breach of constitutional rights that this case shows. Mr. Padilla is a U.S. citizen. The administration held him without charge for 5 years, may have used torture, and denied counsel for 3 years claiming that he is an "enemy combatant". That should scare the shit out of anyone paying attention. If the administration can detain someone without charge by simply accusing, none of us are free.

Jose Padilla is the U.S. citizen who supposedly plotted to detonate a "dirty bomb." Since his capture -- not on the battlefields of Afghanistan or Iraq, but at Chicago's O'Hare Airport -- he has not been charged with any crime.

Padilla's indefinite detention, without access to an attorney, has civil libertarians up in arms. That's why the Cato Institute, joined by five ideologically diverse public policy organizations -- the Center for National Security Studies, the Constitution Project, the Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, People for the American Way, and the Rutherford Institute -- filed a friend-of-the-court brief in Padilla v. Rumsfeld, now pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in New York.

Consider this specious logic, endorsed by the Bush administration: Under the
Sixth Amendment, the right to counsel does not apply until charges are filed.
The government has not charged Padilla. Ordinarily, U.S. citizens cannot be
detained without charge. But the administration has avoided that technicality by
designating Padilla as an "enemy combatant," then proclaiming that the court may
not second-guess his designation.

Essentially, on orders of the executive branch, anyone could wind up imprisoned by the military with no way to assert his innocence. That frightening prospect was echoed by J. Harvie Wilkinson, the respected and steadfastly conservative chief judge of the Fourth Circuit. In a case involving another U.S. citizen, Yaser Hamdi, Wilkinson warned, "With no meaningful judicial review, any American citizen alleged to be an enemy combatant could be detained indefinitely without charges or counsel." Judge Wilkinson upheld Hamdi's detention but pointedly noted that Hamdi's battlefield capture was like "apples and oranges" compared to Padilla's arrest in Chicago. "We aren't placing our imprimatur upon a new day of executive detentions," Wilkinson cautioned.http://www.cato.org/dailys/08-21-03.html

Mr. Padilla may be as dangerous as the administration claims. Fine. Charge and let a jury decide. But do it as our constitutional laws require.

Jackie Robinson

As a baseball fan, I would be remiss if I didn't note that today is the 60th anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking baseball's color barrier. It should have happened long before, but his courage in the face of adversity is a truly great inspiration.

"a life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - jackie robinson

Boobies

I haven't put any up for a while, so here's a nice pair of boobies:

Seeking Hope

I tend to get depressed when I look at our current society. Somehow, we've allowed the worst leaders to carry out the worst ideas across the broad spectrum of policies. Laws? Not for these leaders. War? Not to be won, but to be sustained for the profits of our donors. Public safety? Not profitable. And on and on and on.
So I'm trying to find some hope. Some positive sign. Reading this article, "A journey into the (reputed) soul of conservatism" by David Green,http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17529.htm, actually gave me a bit of hope. While it chronicles decades of wrongness,Green sees a light at the end of the tunnel.

Given the prevalence of such attitudes, it is no small miracle that we appear to have survived our era’s toxic cocktail of regressive bile. We are, of course, not out of the woods yet, and it is possible that a new, new Pearl Harbor, or yet another Middle East war would rally the persuadable middle of the American electorate back to the flag of the Boy King. (Don’t forget he had 90 percent job approval ratings right after
9/11 – despite the fact that he had gone off hiding in Nebraska.) But I tend to think that is probably no longer possible. I also tend to think that the fact that they haven’t already done this suggests that they’re probably not going to, though you never know what they’re capable of once the impeachment process kicks in.

Americans have hardly become any more secure in their own skins, however. To the contrary, the loss of a second Vietnam and the economic disaster which continually seems looming right around the personal debt / government debt / trade debt / mortgage meltdown / globalization corner is only going to make things worse on that score.

Ironically, what saved us (if we are saved) in the long-term from a predatory regime of regressive kleptocrats was the short-term experience of living under a predatory regime of regressive kleptocrats. After the utter and complete hash these people have made of everything they’ve touched, who now wants anything to do with this absurdly deluded ideology, apart from the frightened old ladies who still allow their pastors to tell them how to think and vote (oh, and how to donate too)? There is massive opportunity here. The combination of increasingly insecure Americans and the patent failures of a disastrous turn to the right meant to address those insecurities leaves one obvious prescription on the table – a turn to the left. Already there is overwhelming public support for a national healthcare system (wow, and to think – only sixty years after every other industrialized democracy in the world got theirs!). This would have been unthinkable as little as five years ago. Expect similar
attitudinal swings as the trap door continues to open underneath Americans on
issues like pensions, global warming, jobs and more. It is not exactly in the American tradition to favor governmental solutions to personal and social problems. It just so happens, though, that in so many of these domains they tend to work (however imperfectly – which imperfections usually having most to do with insufficient funding), and that the alternative of the conservative market deity (Praise the one true lord!) does not. Americans have been slow to learn this, and have paid
the price accordingly. But learn they now appear to be doing (it would sure help if somebody out there from the so-called liberal party would frame the question properly, and vocally), and we should perhaps be thankful that the damage done during this particular life lesson wasn’t greater than what has in fact been visited upon us. As awful as its been, it could have been much worse.

Unfortunately, things are likely to get worse before they get better. But I have to believe that they will get better.
Added: This article by Robert Kuttner touches on the same theme
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/04/14/conservatisms_third_failure?mode=PF

THREE TIMES in my political adulthood, we have seen the exhaustion of a conservative ideology and presidency. Under Presidents Nixon and Bush II, the
ingredients were corruption, corporate excess, and overreach of presidential power. During the 12 years of Reagan and Bush I, the hallmark was the failure of conservative economics.

And twice, the electorate ousted Republicans only to get centrist Democrats, who ran more competent administrations but did little to redress the structure of financial inequality in America.

Now, the third era of conservative Republican rule is collapsing -- with the most spectacular mélange of overreach, incompetence, economic distress, and sheer corruption of all. But who, and what, will succeed Bush? The forces of privilege and inequality are now so deeply entrenched in America that it will take a Democratic successor at least as bold as FDR or LBJ to change course.

Government Contracts

I'm convinced that this is not a joke, but the way they really do it:

Three contractors are bidding to fix a broken fence at the White House in D.C. - one from New Jersey, another from Tennessee and the third, Florida. They go with a White House official to examine the fence.

The Florida contractor takes out a tape measure and does some measuring, then works some figures with a pencil. "Well," he says, "I figure the job will run about $900: $400 for materials, $400 for my crew and $100 profit for me."

The Tennessee contractor also does some measuring and figuring, then says, I can do this job for $700: $300 for materials, $300 for my crew and $100 profit for me."

The New Jersey contractor doesn't measure or figure, but leans over to the White House official and whispers, "$2,700." The official, incredulous, says, "You didn't even measure like the other guys! How did you come up with such a high figure?"

The New Jersey contractor whispers back, "$1,000 for me, $1,000 for you, and we hire the guy from Tennessee to fix the fence."

"Done!" replies the government official.

Satire of the day

Our buddy Tom has a post that I must link to. Just too good:
"Bush to Name Corruption Czar"

WASHINGTON, April 13 - Admitting that corruption is "not going as smoothly
as we'd like", White House spokesman Scott Stanzel announced today that Bush
plans to name a high-powered 'corruption czar' to oversee all aspects of corruption in the executive branch. Stanzel acknowledged public disapprovel of the administration's corruption efforts, and said the new post is the centerpiece of a plan to "get corruption back on track."

Stanzel tried to emphasize the positive aspects of creating the post, noting the growing importance of corruption under the Bush administration. The federal corruption budget has expanded by 17,000% since early 2001, and insiders estimate that at least 47% of the executive branch payroll currently works full-time on
corruption.

http://tehipitetom.blogspot.com/2007/04/bush-to-name-corruption-czar.html#links

Teen Sex

So a new report shows that "abstinence only" education doesn't work. What a surprise. Apparently, some teenagers are having sex. Shocking.

“After 10 years and $1.5 billion in public funds these failed abstinence-only-until-marriage programs will go down as an ideological boondoggle of historic proportions,” said James Wagoner, President of Advocates for Youth.

“The tragedy is not simply the waste of taxpayer dollars, it is the damage done to the young people who have been on the receiving end of distorted, inaccurate information about condoms and birth control. We have been promoting ignorance in the era of AIDS, and that’s not just bad public health policy, its bad ethics”.

“This report should serve as the final verdict on the failure of the abstinence-only industry in this country,” said William Smith, vice president for public policy of the Sexuality Information and Education Council of the U.S. (SIECUS). “It shows, once again, that these programs fail miserably in actually helping young people behave more responsibly when it comes to their sexuality,” Smith continued.

http://www.rhrealitycheck.org/blog/2007/04/13/burying-release-of-abstinence-only-report-on-friday-the-13th-seems-fitting

Now, I'm no expert on this generations teenagers. I try to avoid them as much as possible. But I remember my teen years, and they included sex (not as much as I would have liked, but more than the parents knew about). Society wrung it's hands about teen sex in my generation. And my parents generation. And my grandparents generation. The only reason that teen sex wasn't a cause for public outcry in my great-grandparents generation was teen marriage (my great-grandmother married at 15 and gave birth to my grandfather 6 months later).
The folks who worry about "morality" have been wringing their collective hands about teen sex for many decades, and our current religionists thought they could do something about it. The fools thought that they could teach our youngsters to deny biology, to deny reality.
Do they remember their own teenage years?

What's in a Name?

I see that one of my favorite blogs is growing and changing. What was "NewsHog" is now "The NewsHoggers" http://cernigsnewshog.blogspot.com/, and it's a new layout, too.
Cernig has been one of my favorites since before this blog began. He writes in depth, thoughtful posts that I envy. The recently added Fester is equally good, especially on Iraq, as are Shamanic and Libby Spencer. Read daily.
Congrats, 'hoggers!

The 5 million missing emails

Did they check the "junk" folder? Because that's the first place I'd look for anything from "RNC.com" or "gwb43.com".

"I don't believe there's any problem in this country, no matter how tough it is, that Americans, when they roll up their sleeves, can't completely ignore." George Carlin

I'm confused

Reading about the Paul Wolfowitz scandal has me really confused. OK, the guy got his girlfriend a REALLY big raise at the World Bank, so that her salary is higher than the Secretary of State. He broke the rules of the World Bank to do this. Simple cronyism I understand.
But what confuses is me is this: Wolfowitz the comb-sucker is married with children, but is openly rewarding his self acknowledged girlfriend. And the right-wing is OK with this? I seem to remember that there was some sort of kerfuffle about extra-marital affairs a few years back that really upset a lot of the righties. Now, they're behaving like the French accepting that a married man can openly keep a mistress? OK.
So: as a republican, sex is OK outside of marriage; but as a democrat, blow jobs are an outrage.
My liberal mind can't grasp right-wing morals.
Added: Yes, he is "separated" from his wife.

Iranian weapons?

The media really pisses me off sometimes. I realize that most of the public doesn't understand the subtlety of the middle east, but after four years the media should have a clue. My latest outrage is based on all the reports of Iran providing arms to insurgents. While this may be happening, there's a major problem with the evidence. Here's a picture of the "Iranian" weapons shown to the press by Major-General William Caldwell on 4/11:

Joe Raedle/Getty

BAGHDAD, IRAQ - APRIL 11: Weapons seized in Iraq are
shown during a news conference April 11, 2007 in Baghdad, Iraq.

All the reporters dutifully filed the stories without question. But take a close look at the weapons...anyone have any questions?

Um, let's see...Iranians speak Farsi. I don't expect our media would be able to tell the difference between Farsi and Arabic (although they are very different languages), but the difference between Farsi and English should be obvious. Unless we have been selling arms to the Iranians.

This "evidence" is blatantly obvious propaganda. Will someone, anyone in the media call them on this?

Added: Should have put up source link:

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2007-04-12T074505Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-293937-1.xml&archived=False

Added again: The military explains:

Several mortar rounds on display at the news conference had markings that read
"2006," suggesting they had been manufactured -- and arrived in Iraq -- after
the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The markings on all the munitions were in English. Maj. Marty Weber, an explosives expert, said countries selling arms on the global market tend to use English lettering.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/11/AR2007041102121_pf.html

I'm skeptical, to say the least.

Blog civility

I have been reading a lot of debate about "blog civility" and a variety of "pledges", "guidelines", and "ethics". Given how few comments this blog gets, it's not really a problem for us. But I don't like rules. So I'm only making one simple pledge: if a comment REALLY annoys me, I will send this cute Verde Tarantula after the comment poster.

Who said this?

Unrelated to the previous post, who said this?

"Am I the only guy in this country who’s fed up with what’s happening? Where
the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder. We’ve got a gang
of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we’ve got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can’t even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, “Stay the course.”

Stay the course? You’ve got to be kidding. This is America, not the damned Titanic. I’ll give you a sound bite: Throw the bums out!

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/10476.html

Hint: Not the usual suspects.

RIP, Billy Pilgrim

One of my favorite writers has left us.

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Kurt
Vonnegut, Author, Dies at 84

By DINITIA SMITH 5 minutes ago

Kurt Vonnegut’s dark comic talent and urgent moral vision
caught the temper of his times.

• Reviews of Kurt
  Vonnegut's Books »

another San Juan pic

Because they make me happy.

Iraq by the numbers

Found this article breaking down the Iraq debacle by the numbers. Not a pretty picture:
http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/news_theswamp/2007/04/iraq_data_at_a_.html

Approximate number of U.S. troops currently in Iraq: 145,000

Percent of coalition forces contributed by the U.S.: 92

Number of troops the British government will withdraw from Iraq in the
coming months: 1,600

Number of additional U.S. troops to be sent to Iraq, according to the President’s surge plan: 28,700

Number of additional U.S. troops to be sent to Iraq, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) analysis of the President’s surge plan: Up to 48,000

Estimated cost of troop surge plan according to the Bush Administration: $5.6 billion

Estimated cost of troop surge plan according to CBO’s analysis:
Up to $27 billion

Approximate amount appropriated by Congress for Iraq operations so far: >$450 billion

Estimated total cost of operations in Iraq by war’s end: $549 billion - $2.26 trillion

Approximate amount spent by the U.S. in World War I (in inflation-adjusted dollars): $205 billion

Approximate amount the U.S. is spending in Iraq per month (including operationaland investment costs): $8.6 billion

Approximate amount the U.S. spent in Iraq per month in Fiscal Year 2003 (including operational and investment costs): $4.4 billion

Number of U.S. service members killed in Iraq: 3,260

Number reported wounded by the Defense Department: 24,476

Number of National Guard soldiers killed in Iraq through February 3, 2007: 415

Number of National Guard soldiers killed in the entire Vietnam War: 97

Number of Iraqi military and police killed since training began in June 2003: 6,401

Number of journalists killed in Iraq: 95

Number of journalists killed in Vietnam: 63

Estimated number of insurgents in Iraq (November 2003): 5,000

Estimated strength of Sunni insurgency (including non-operational supporters): 70,000

Estimated number of foreign fighters in Iraq in May 2003: 100

Estimated number of foreign fighters in Iraq in November 2006: 800 – 2,000

A good analogy

At Sabdariffa, Hibiscus posts a really good analogy on global warming. Well worth reading.
http://sabdariffa.blogspot.com/2007/04/closing-argument.html#links

this is the last thing i'm going say here on the issue of whether it's settled science that we're responsible for creating this warming climate. i don't see the point in trying to convince people of anything. as far as i'm concerned, we're years late, and what we need to do is to develop social frameworks for facing the challenge, or we're fucked.

...

let's say, tomorrow morning, you wake up with a stomach cramp. that's sort of how it feels. maybe you're a little constipated but mostly what you have is some abdominal discomfort. you go through the day and still, pain. you take some antacids, they don't help. nothing helps with the constipation, either. getting uncomfortable.

you're busy. it goes on for a couple days like this. finally, you decide to see a doctor, somebody who can see you right away, and the doctor, after examining your rectum, and x-raying your rectum, says,

"there's a growth on your colon. my guess: cancer. it's pretty small, not hard to remove. i can schedule for you — next week."

you go to ten more, a hundred more. every single asshole saying the same fucking thing — growth. cancer. surgery. you've looked it up on the net. it could be a dozen other things! and the doctors all give you the same lame reasons that your self-diagnoses are wrong, wrong, wrong. idiots!

woah, you think. surgery? forget it! the doctor strongly advises the surgery, because it'll be reasonably easy, but you have some pretty strong feelings against having knives inside you. so you go for a second opinion, and the second doctor says,

"there's a growth on your colon. my guess: cancer. it's pretty small, not hard to remove. i can —"

what is with these people, with this surgery thing? you are so outta there. try again:

"i hate to tell you this, but it looks there's a growth —"

and another: "could be colon cancer. i'd get it out, fast."

Water

Found on another planet.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Evidence of water has been detected for the first time
in a planet outside our solar system, an astronomer said on Tuesday, a tantalizing find for scientists eager to know whether life exists beyond Earth.

Travis Barman, an astronomer at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, said water vapor has been found in the atmosphere of a large, Jupiter-like gaseous planet located 150 light years from Earth in the constellation Pegasus. The planet is known as HD 209458b.http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN1043498020070411

It's nice to know that our local scientists are keeping busy.

stealing Monkeyfisters nukes

Our pal, Monkeyfisterhttp://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/ put up the winning link of the day. Video's of nuclear testing. Big Bangs.http://www.nv.doe.gov/library/films/testfilms.aspx

But I have the beach dragon.

more on Najaf

The Najaf protests as seen by shrub's spokesman:

NEW YORK A huge anti-American protest swept two cities in Iraq today, but White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe told reporters this only
underscores how much "progress" the U.S. is making in that country.

Four years since the fall of Baghad, Iraq "is now a place where people can freely gather and express their opinions, and that was something they could not do under Saddam." Johndrove said, traveling with President Bush to Arizona.

Nice spin job, but I'm thinking that reality has a different idea.

But at least they're learning english.

added: more here:http://www.iraqslogger.com/index.php/post/2288/Najaf_Protests_Show_of_Sadrist_Strength

Internet addiction

I'm back. We had a power outage yesterday, and it left the household network router "hinky". So I went almost 24 hours without access to the intertubes. The withdrawl symptoms were terrible, but I survived. Was there really life before the internet?

More on al-Sadr

Moqtada al-Sadr's statement seems to be under reported in the media. AP repeats the "radical cleric" many times, but fails to report what his actual words were. Here's the imporatant part of the communique:

"a call to the Mahdi Army and the security apparatuses to stop fighting [in Diwaniya]." He said, "That is enough struggling and fighting, for it merely ensures the success of the plans of our enemy and your enemy. Our Iraq can no longer bear the shedding of this blood. The blood of an Iraqi is a red line [that must not be crossed.]" He added, "Iraqi Army and Police: Do not get drawn in behind the Occupier. For it is an obvious enemy to you." He said, "The armies of darkness represented by the Occupation forces, and more especially the great evil, America, have begun sowing the seeds of conflict, whether openly or through their agents--who have sold their land and their honor. We behold the turmoil taking place in Diwaniya, which the Occupier planned out to turn brotherhood into struggle and fighting."

original in arabic here:http://www.sotaliraq.com/iraq-news.php?id=50361
My arabic is not good enough to provide a full translation, but Juan Cole's is.http://www.juancole.com/

Najaf

I'll be keeping an eye on this one. I've posted before on Moqtada al-Sadr's influence and potential impact on Iraq's future. It appears that a confontation may be coming in Najaf.

NAJAF, Iraq (Reuters) - Thousands of Iraqis streamed to the holy southern city of Najaf on Sunday in response to a call by fiery Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr for a big anti-American protest on Monday.

Sadr, who blames the U.S.-led invasion for Iraq's unrelenting violence, has urged Iraqis to protest on the fourth anniversary of the day American forces swept into central Baghdad.

"In order to end the occupation, you will go out and demonstrate," Sadr, who
accuses U.S. forces of deliberately fomenting civil strife in Iraq, said in a statement.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSPAR34073020070408

(photos from reuters)

This could end up very badly.

Hunting with Mitt

Is this the silliest controversy in political history?

(I think that's Mitt in front)

Happy Easter

I'm non-religious, but to my christian friends, happy Easter.

Late to the party

but it was poetry time:

Everybody wants to go to bed
with everybody else, they're
lined up for blocks, so I'll
go to bed with you. They won't
miss us.

Have you ever had a witch bloom like a highway
on your mouth?
and turn your breathing to her fancy?
 like a little car with blue headlights
 passing forever in a dream?
 
ALL GIRLS SHOULD HAVE A POEM
  For Valerie

All girls should have a poem
written for them even if
we have to turn this God-damn world
upside down to do it.

  New Mexico
  March 16, 1969
 
Richard Brautigan, from "Rommel Drives On Deep Into Egypt".

 

Because I'm not poetic.

Almost a burning bush

This would have been too ironic:
http://rawstory.com/showoutarticle.php?src=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.detnews.com%2Fapps%2Fpbcs.dll%2Farticle%3FAID%3D%2F20070407%2FAUTO01%2F704070338%2F1148

Credit Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally with saving the leader of the free
world from self-immolation.

Mulally told journalists at the New York auto show that he intervened to prevent President Bush from plugging an electrical cord into the hydrogen tank of Ford's hydrogen-electric plug-in hybrid at the White House last week. Ford wanted to give the Commander-in-Chief an actual demonstration of the innovative vehicle, so the automaker arranged for an electrical outlet to be installed on the South Lawn and ran a charging cord to the hybrid. However, as Mulally followed Bush out to the car, he noticed someone had left the cord lying at the rear of the vehicle, near the fuel tank.

"I just thought, 'Oh my goodness!' So, I started walking faster, and the President walked faster and he got to the cord before I did. I violated all the protocols. I touched the President. I grabbed his arm and I moved him up to the front," Mulally said. "I wanted the president to make sure he plugged into the electricity, not into the hydrogen This is all off the record, right?"

Saved by a Ford CEO. Well, I guess you get what you pay for.

OK, so the challenge is to build a hydrogen/hybrid vehicle so simple that even a shrub man can use it.

Added: Thanks, Demeur, I should have included the photo. I never liked Fords, and now they've prevented "President Pelosi" for now.

Rethuglican fundraising

Over at Grouchy's place,http://www.liberaltopia.org/, RS Janes has put up a wonderful post on the Rethug '08 candidates fundraising. With lines like this:

Maybe lightning will strike and videos of Hillary skinny-dipping with Snoop
Dogg, Obama at a Klan rally, or Edwards beating up homeless orphans will
surface. (Maybe Rove will photo-shop them for The Internets.)

Wish I had the inspiration to write stuff like that.

Cute

A tarantula on the way to Verde hot springs.

Remember the anthrax letters?

Cernig put up a post over at NewsHog questioning the credibility of ABC news, and used the case of the Anthrax letters as an example. Basically, there were repeated attempts to tie the anthrax spores to Iraq. This was absolutely false.

Capitol Hill Anthrax Matches Army's Stocks
5 Labs Can Trace Spores to Ft. Detrick

by Rick Weiss and Susan Schmidt

Genetic fingerprinting studies indicate that the anthrax spores mailed to Capitol Hill are identical to stocks of the deadly bacteria maintained by the U.S. Army since 1980, according to scientists familiar with the most recent tests.

Although many laboratories possess the Ames strain of anthrax involved in this fall's bioterrorist attacks, only five laboratories so far have been found to have spores with perfect
genetic matches to those in the Senate letters, the scientists said. And all those labs can trace back their samples to a single U.S. military source: the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Disease (USAMRIID) at Fort Detrick, Md.

"That means the original source [of the terrorist material] had to have been USAMRIID," said one of the scientists.

http://commondreams.org/headlines01/1216-03.htm

I have a bit of inside knowledge about the case because I worked at Northern Arizona University at the time. NAU is the base for the lab of Dr. Paul Keim, who's one of the worlds top anthrax researchers. Because I was one of many who had access to that lab, I was interviewed by the FBI as part of the investigation. The interview was somewhat surreal, with the FBI repeatedly asking about "middle eastern males" who might have gained access to the lab (which by the way didn't have anywhere near the quantities used in the attack). I was asked multiple times if I'd seen any suspicious activity by "middle eastern males", and it really bothered me that the FBI had ruled out any American suspects.

The genetic fingerprinting finding was made by a research team led by geneticist Paul Keim at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, which has been comparing the Ames strain bacteria found in the Senate letters to other Ames strain samples retrieved from nature and from various university and government laboratories.

It seems the most logical suspect had to have inside access to Fort Detrick, and more specifically to the bioweapons lab. In short, it was an inside job. I'm not saying a government sanctioned hit, but whoever mailed the letters to two top democratic senators worked for the facility.
added: Blogger is giving me a headache on changing font sizes.

Why is this news today?

Today's news: Saddam had no ties to al-Qaeda, according to declassified pentagon report.

Captured Iraqi documents and intelligence interrogations of Saddam Hussein and
two former aides "all confirmed" that Hussein's regime was not directly cooperating with al-Qaeda before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, according to a declassified Defense Department report released yesterday.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17970427

VP reasserts al-Qaeda links to Saddam.

WASHINGTON - Vice President Dick Cheney repeated his assertions of al-Qaida
links to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq on Thursday as the Defense Department released a
report citing more evidence that the prewar government did not cooperate with
the terrorist group.

Aaargh! THERE WAS NO LINK! That was clearly proven in 2003, prior to the invasion of Iraq.
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/11/Iraq.Qaeda.link/
Look, I knew this was pure BS back then. I have a long memory. When Iraq invaded Kuwait back in 1991, Osama offered to take Saddam out with his Mujihadeen fighters from Afghanistan. Bin Laden issued several fatwas that called for the assassination of Saddam as a "false muslim". There simply was no way that Bin Laden would co-operate with the hated secularist Saddam regime. There was no way that Saddam would work with someone who was trying to kill him.

This Thing of Ours.....

....will soon be coming to and end.

On Sunday, April 8th, HBO will begin airing the first of the final nine episodes of The Sopranos - a show that everyone has at least heard of, if not seen portions.

You know, there's a guy, a made guy I know of, from way back in the Golden Age, before RICO, before we was all worried about rats gettin' pinched and breaking the code of silence (the Omerta); back when a boss, his underboss, his consigliere and his captains - the whole administration - ran their families and crews with an iron fist, but always fairly and evenly (aside from the occasional hit).

This guy I know, started out as an associate to those in the waste management business, essentially by lending his talents through various business and legal manipulations, into running, legally, a shylock business for several outfits in the mob, before becoming fully mobbed up himself.

He started out as a simple soldier, but he was a aggressive cugine, and the garbage business was in a growth spurt at the time, so as soon as the books were open, he became a confirmed wiseguy and borgata member. Still running the books he effectively controlled the entire New York and Jersey shy business, and bagan extended his reach further up and down the coast.

This was incredibly difficult to accomplish, and on some of his occasional shake-downs, if the guy couldn't come through with the vig, he might have to "mock execute" him to scare the bejesus out of him, especially if the juice he was owed was worth several Gs. However, he was such a good listener and his reasoning was so solid that I know of only once, where he had to go heavy and actually clip somebody. Unfortunately, he used it as a message job on the guy's wife, giving her one "through the eye", in order to let other players know who was really in charge. The carnage was so rough that no effective spring cleaning could be done, and the heat was so hot that he had to lam up for awhile. But he eventually came back in.

Over time, he kept taxing the same clientel as he had previously, getting his points and paying tribute to his don, and he soon moved up to become a capo with a trophy wife, several goomahs on the side (one with a vicious crank habit). But that was OK, because business was still good and he was pulling in several hundred large a year, which was great money at the time.

Unfortunately for him, this was the early sixties, and the Feds, under Kennedy, were deperately trying to pursue mobsters as hard as possible, both for legal reasons and to disavow the alleged Kennedy-mob link. Through various nefarious CIA adventures, they managed to catch my
friend laundering millions of dollars and he got several years of time in the pen. While there, even though he was well taken care of, he still had to whack a few of the other inmates. Once there was a prison gang war which erupted, with all sides going to the mattresses for a week before the guards could restore order. Because my friend was suspected of being a ringleader in that war he got a few more added years.

After he got out, the Feds were on him twice as hard as ever. They tried everything, even offering him a seat in the Program, but he never gave in. He knew that if he did, he'd get a message "through the mouth". Besides, the new bosses ate alone and he and the family realized that he'd probably not be comfortable with the new ways of doing things.

So now? He does some consulting, light security stuff, things of that nature. Oh, and he visits the bakery every morning for his favorite snack - a sack full of piping hot donuts - which exactly matches his name - Vinny Sackadonuts.

OK, that was fun, trying to write a story using all the slang mob terms (http://www.the-sopranos.com/bada.htm). There's an even more comprehensive list here: http://www.onewal.com/maf-glos.html, but, good god, I ain't got that kinda time.

Anyways, even though I don't have a television (so no HBO) I'm looking forward to this next season. The Sopranos has been one of the best shows ever to make it onto television. Consistently well-written, wickedly funny, the machinations of one group of NJ mobsters and their families made for some of the best boob-tube time ever. And while I'm one to advocate watching as little television as possible, if I were King of the Forest, I'd teach the course in schools nationwide.

The Sopranos show is just that good.

Centcom: Bin Laden video coming

Central Command (centcom) is reporting that Bin Laden will be putting out a new video. How convenient.

Al-Sahab Expected To Release New Bin Ladin
Video

Terrorism: Al-Sahab Reportedly To Release New Bin
Ladin Video Message

On 4 April, a jihadist website carried the
following posting:

"After a long absence by the shaykh of mujahidin,
whom we have missed as well as his speeches, some news is being leaked
indicating that Shaykh Usama Bin Ladin, God protect and preserve him and make
him a thorn in the throat of the enemies, will make an appearance. The news
indicates that Al-Sahab Media Establishment, which specializes in
publishing Al-Qa'ida leaders' speeches, has recently finished producing a video
featuring Bin Ladin's speech to the entire Islamic nation. "

Furthermore, the poster of this note maintains
that the speech includes several messages to the "mujahidin" in Iraq, the
Palestinian People on " the capitulation choice which HAMAS gave in to," the
Riyadh Arab summit, the "fears" of America and its allies of the establishment
of the Islamic Caliphate state in Iraq, and the "good tidings of victory in Iraq
and Afghanistan."

http://www.centcom.mil/sites/uscentcom2/Exposing%20the%20Enemy/Al-Sahab%20Expected%20To%20Release%20New%20Bin%20Ladin%20Video.aspx

My only question is: why the hell is he still roaming around making videos?

Beer and Politics

At my favorite microbrewery we have a lot of political discussions and while this may sound arrogant, we're a pretty astute group. I'm not sure if micro's draw a more well informed crowd than regular bars, but the "mog" sure seems to. The regulars are predominantly liberal, but there are enough conservatives to keep the debate lively.
Recently, there's been a great deal of talk about the '08 candidates. While I've heard a variety of preferences and reasons for them, one thing is clear: the beltway pundits don't know us or how we view the candidates. The myriad views I hear are much more nuanced than what I hear and see from the media.
On the liberal side there's no consensus on any one candidate, but a general view that Obama or Edwards would be better than Clinton. Richardson is generally viewed as someone who would be a good president but unlikely to be elected.
There seems to be a real malaise on the conservative side (I should add that the conservative I know are disgusted with Shrub, albeit for different reasons than I am). None of the Repub candidates seems to have any real support, but I've heard a lot of "anyone but McCain" talk. We're in Arizona so this should be his turf, but amongst the conservatives that I know he's lost credibility.
There's still a lot of time before the first primary(s), but I'm curious as to how this compares with political conversation elsewhere. How are people talking about the election where you are?
And readers, if you find yourself in Flagstaff, AZ, stop by the Mogollonhttp://www.mogbrew.com/, and join in the discussion.

Un-serious

After two serious posts, I must do something lighter.

So here's a mossy vug at Travertine Falls in the Grand Canyon. What would you like to see next?

More on diplomacy

Reading some serious stuff on foreign policy and public opinion, this study shows the American public is smarter than I sometimes give them credit for.
http://www.publicagenda.org/foreignpolicy/index.cfm

This desire for diplomacy is particularly apparent in public attitudes on the spread of nuclear weapons. As far as the vast majority of Americans are concerned, military force is "off the table" in dealing with Iran's nuclear program and its possible meddling in Iraq. There's also been a
sharp drop in public confidence in military force as a tool for dealing with other countries developing weapons of mass destruction—even though controlling the spread of nuclear weapons is the public's top policy priority and one of its major fears.

The public anxiety on our foreign policy is wee founded. We're failing in more than just Iraq.

Certainly the public's anguish and frustration over Iraq is a driving force in this questioning of U.S. policy. Multiple national surveys demonstrate attitudes on the war have turned sharply negative. But it would be a mistake to believe that public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war is confined to just the conduct of the war itself. The public's anxiety spills over into the
entire range of challenges facing the United States in a dangerous world, leading them to question fundamental premises and to give the government poor grades on multiple fronts.

Here's a chart on the public's view on Iran.


Note that "Public Agenda" is part of "Foreign Affairs", one of the most comprehensive venues for policy debates for decades. I routinely read the magazine back in the pre-internet days, and the online magazine is a great resource.http://www.foreignaffairs.org/

The Middle East muddle

I have a long standing interest in the middle east, both in history and current events. While I'm certainly not an expert (see Juan Colehttp://www.juancole.com/ for that), I consider myself fairly well informed. A lot of interesting events are happening over the past few days.
Pelosi in Syria, including a "peace message" from Isreal:

"We came in friendship, hope, and determined that the road to Damascus is a
road to peace," Pelosi told reporters after her talks with Assad.

Pelosi said she and her delegation "expressed our concern about Syria's
connections to Hezbollah and Hamas" and discussed the issue of militant fights
slipping across the Syrian border into Iraq.

"These are important issues not only in the fight against terrorism but important priorities for us for peace in the Middle East," she said.

She said she brought a message to Assad from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that Israel was ready for peace talks with Syria. Assad gave assurances that "he's ready to engage in negotiations for peace with Israel," Pelosi said. She later left Syria, heading for Saudi Arabia, the next leg of a Mideast tour.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070404/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_pelosi

Iran to free hosttages:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced the release of 15 captive British
soldiers and sailors Wednesday in what he called an Easter gift to the British
people.

"On the occasion of the birthday of the great prophet (Muhammad) ... and for the occasion of the passing of Christ, I say the Islamic Republic government and the Iranian people — with all powers and legal right to put the soldiers on trial — forgave those 15," he said, referring to the Muslim prophet's birthday on March 30 and the Easter holiday.

Saudi frustration with Bush:

Saudi Arabia is trying to bring Syria back to the negotiating table (along with Lebanon and Israel), and is seeking some kind of understanding with Iran - a few days ago President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an important visit to Riyadh .
The Saudi influence even extends to Pakistan (old connections that have existed
since the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan), and it has a huge moderating influence on the decisions of OPEC.

The biggest frustration of the Saudis, however, is named George W. Bush. Despite old ties between the Bush family and the Saudis, King Abdullah feels that he hasn't been listened to on any vital question of recent times - especially the invasion of Iraq. And worse: not even his warnings were taken into account. The King spoke freely and in full during a blunt speech full of acid criticism of the Americans - amongst them, that the occupation of Iraq is illegal.

Most curiously, in part the Israeli diplomats fully agree with the Saudis. "The
Iranians should build a monument in honor of Bush, due to the gifts that Iran
has received due to American policy in the Middle East"

The last is from Munaeems bloghttp://www.munaeem.org/, which I recently found. Well worth reading for his perpective as a Pakistani, he's become one of my daily reads.

While it's unclear how this will all sort out, I see some positive signs that maybe cooler heads will prevail over the administrations idiotic lust for war. If anyone can prevent a war with Iran, the whole world will be better off. The Iraq debacle will be with us for decades, no matter when the troops are withdrawn. But maybe diplomacy will minimize the damage. We can at least give it a try.

Will Durst

With the start of baseball season and the presidential exhibition season, Will Durst writes a very amusing column "Presidential spring training". For the baseball/politics junkies who stop by (I know who both of you are), go read:
http://www.workingforchange.com/printitem.cfm?itemid=22193
selected parts:

With no sitting President or Vice President running for the first time in 80 years, the '08 field promises to be more crowded than a trainer's table after the first day of wind sprints for pitchers and Molinas. Besides, this is America. Where any Dominican can become a
shortstop, and any American can become President, although when they coined that
phrase, I'm not sure they had George Bush in mind.

...

50 to 1. Delaware Senator Joe Biden. Back on disabled list with persistent foot in mouth disease. A little too comfortable flossing with own shoelaces.

...

8,000,000 to 1. Former Ohio Senator Dennis Kucinich. Could lose Iowa straw poll to the straw.

...

15 to 1. Fred Thompson. Warming up in the bullpen, if needed to relieve. Of course America would never accept an actor as President. Oh.

Added: Dang it, Gordon over at "The Alternate Brain" beat me to this.http://alterx.blogspot.com/

Pelosi going to Syria

This could be quite interesting. Shrub's people are blasting Pelosi for talking with Syria, but not the rethug congress critters who are doing the same. The Isreali's endorse the talks, the wingnuts scream their usual nonsense, and in the end Nancy takes a sensible approach to the talks.

BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday she had "no
illusions but great hope" for her talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad this week which she said would focus on the fight against terrorism.

"When we go there we'll be talking about the overarching issue of the fight against terrorism and the role that Syria can play to help or to hinder ...," Pelosi told reporters after talks with Lebanese majority leader Saad al-Hariri.

"We think it's a good idea to establish the facts, to hopefully build some confidence between us," she said. "We have no illusions but great hope."http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0237690320070402

Madame Speaker, I salute you. A calm, logical, and realistic dialogue with Syria may not work. But it sure has a much better chance than the administrations petulant rhetoric.

Just Dropped In To See What Condition...

...My Hurricane Condition is In.

The following is the NOAA Hurricane Center's December 2006 predictions for the 2007 hurricane season. I bring this up, because the NHC (National Hurricane Center) will release its first report for the ongoing 2007 season tomorrow, Tuesday 03 April 2007, and I'll be very interested to see any variances between what they thought in December versus today.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2007
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)
8 December 2006 Forecast for 2007


Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 14

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 70

Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 7

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 35

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) 8

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 130

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 140

Now, my predictions for the 2006 season were higher than all of these, although I admit that I disregarded the 1950-1995 results almost entirely and based it on 1996-2004 values. Which, I'll cheerfully admit, probably skewed the hell out of my results. Of course, I was sort of angling for a worst case scenario, so I had 21 named storms, 100 named storm days, 11 hurricanes, roughly 50 hurricane days, and 7 intense hurricanes . Ah, thank you Excel for warping my methodology beyond all reason.

What really caught my eye, though, was this paragraph (emphasis mine):

Our initial 6-11 month early December seasonal hurricane forecast scheme (Gray et al. 1992) demonstrated hindcast skill for the period of 1950-1990 but did not give skillful results when utilized on a real-time basis for forecasts between 1995-2001. This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these relationships that had worked so well for 41 years to stop working from 1995 onward.

Ummmmm, global warming anyone? Could that just maybe, possibly, thrown a teensy, weensy wobble into your predictive capabilities since 1995? That was, what, only 12 years ago, right? A-and we all know global warming's just a crock o' shite, correct?

Must be all those butterflies flapping their wings in China, I guess.

Meanwhile, the lousy (and by lousy, I mean ferocious) '97-'98 hurricane seasons showed an average raised Atlantic water basin temperature of 2.3 degrees (Celsius, I believe); inital predictions for 2007 gauge a probable average raise of 1.7 degrees.

I guess it's the 0.6 degrees of separation that'll determine the hurricane season this year.

Iraq and McCain

I rarely join in the "blog topic of the day", but I read Juan Cole's http://www.juancole.com/ comments and felt they should be highlighted.
McCain put on the "things are better" show with 100 soldiers and a group of helicopters guarding him. Yeah, I guess that's safe.

This grandstanding trip that John McCain took to Baghdad on Sunday is another
occasion for propaganda to shore up his falling poll numbers in his presidential
campaign. He said, "Things are better and there are encouraging signs. I've been here . . . many times over the years. Never have I been able to drive from the airport, never have I been able go out into the city as I was today."

He said that only three days after the US embassy issued an order that personnel are to wear 'personal protective equipment' when moving between buildings inside the Green Zone! He said it the day two suicide belt bombs were found inside the
Green Zone. So he could ride in an armored car in from the airport. That's the
big achievement? What about when he gets to the Green Zone? Then he has to put
on PPE to go to the cafeteria.

Look, I lived in the midst of a civil war in the late 1970s in Beirut. I know exactly what it looks and smells like. The inexperienced often assume that when a guerrilla war or a civil war is going on, life grinds to a standstill. Not so. People go shopping for food. They drive where they need to go as long as they don't hear that there is a firefight in that area. They go to work if they still have work. Life goes on. It is just
that, unexpectedly, a mortar shell might land near you. Or the person ahead of
you in line outside the bakery might fall dead, victim of a sniper's bullet. The bazaars are bustling some days (all the moreso because it is good to stock up on supplies the days when the violence isn't so bad). So nothing that John McCain saw in Baghdad on Sunday meant a damn thing. Not a goddamn thing.

It makes my blood boil.

Mr. Cole is THE source to go to for accurate reporting on Iraq. Iraq is not getting better, people.

A positive step

Today's Supreme Court ruling on its opinion in Massachusetts v. EPA, ordering the federal government to look at regulating greenhouse gasses, is a positive step. While I harbor no illusions about this administrations willingness to make any substantial effort on global warming, they've lost one excuse for doing nothing.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/LAW/04/02/scotus.greenhousegas.ap/index.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Supreme Court ordered the federal government on Monday to take a fresh look at regulating carbon dioxide emissions from cars, a rebuke to Bush administration policy on global warming.

In a 5-4 decision, the court said the Clean Air Act gives the Environmental Protection Agency the authority to regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from cars.

stolen without comment

yet.
Stolen from Gordon at The Alternate Brain http://alterx.blogspot.com/, who has a good 4/1 story for you.

Another river pic

Taken by one of the other folk on the trip. That's me with the oars.

A quick note on the pet food contamination

I don't have a dog or cat, so I haven't been too focused on the pet food contamination scandal (see monkeyfister for all the details). Atrocia eats rats. Fat, live rats. But I got to thinking, isn't this just what we should expect in the wake of rethuglican deregulation? The e.coli outbreaks have proven that this administration doesn't care about peoples safety, so why would they care about pets?
What really does make me nervous about all the FDA cutbacks is food safety. Safety regulations cut into corporate profits, dontcha know. I would like my tax dollars to ensure that what I buy at the grocery store is safe to eat. Is that unreasonable?
I guess that in the era of shrub, I'll have to trust that our corporate overlords won't kill too many of us, as that would be bad for business.
My sympathies to all who's pets have been effected by this.

Boat Day

Aah, it's a beautiful spring Sunday. Today, I'm doing a boat tuneup in preparation for my trip at the end of the month.

I haven't said anything about my old raft before. "The Great Pumpkin" is an 18' Green River bucket boat. She's over 30 years old. I got her four years ago, at a steal of a price.
The "Pumpkin" is about as heavy a raft as you can get, and can be a real workout to row when fully loaded. The annual tuneup consists of inflating, searching for any new leaks that may have emerged over the winter, patching where needed, and cleaning. Thankfully, Zymurgian has offered to help with this as moving the old boat is at least a 2 man job. In return, I'm letting Zymurgian row some of the rapids on the upcoming trip (he's been a passenger before, but this will be his first time as a boatman). Because the "Pumpkin" is such a heavy boat it's also very stable, so it's a good boat to learn on.

Here's to a happy boat.