Friday, December 11, 2009
The Obama You Have vs. The Obama You Want
As I see it, this disappointment is a result of unrealistic expectations. There's been a lot of projection placed on Obama: "he's a good, smart man, so of course he should act strongly on the issues that I believe strongly in." Whether it be Afghanistan, Wall St., health care, gay rights, or a host of other issues, the left expected Obama to be a more progressive advocate. He isn't. Hey, I'm about as far to the left as possible, and I knew all along that Obama was no liberal.
In reality, Barack Obama has always been a moderate (as is Hillary, BTW). Don't be fooled by lofty rhetoric; every policy proposal made during the campaign leaned strongly toward the middle ground. Obama advocated "fixing problems", not "radical" changes (yeah, I know the slogan; the actual "change" proposed was minor). He's an 'establishment' manager rather than a revolutionary.
Maybe it's because I'm cynical to begin with, but I'm not all that disappointed in Obama's performance so far. He's done about what I expected (as opposed to what I might have wanted): he's been pragmatic and intelligent as he attempts to address the myriad disasters in front of us. Faced with a trashed economy, wars, and an opposition party that refuses to participate in governing, Obama has been able to make some small, steady progress. We may want a lot more, but it's unrealistic to expect it, and it may be impossible for Obama to actually change a situation that was decades in the making.
If you keep your expectations low, you're seldom disappointed. All I ever expected Obama to do was do a better job of governing than St. Sleazy McCain (or shrub) would do. What we've gotten is about what I expected.
(Added: Go over to No More Mister Nice Blog for some other views, especially in the comments, on the topic. It's a very lively, but civil, debate).
Thursday, December 10, 2009
The Dynamite Prize
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Eighth
This wasn't anywhere near the biggest storm recorded for Flagstaff -- 1967 still holds the record, with 7 feet of snow in a little more than a week.
But this week's storm did make the list for snowiest single days in the past century, as the 8th snowiest day on record for Flagstaff, according to Andrew Latto, meteorologist intern at the National Weather Service in Bellemont. From midnight on Sunday to midnight on Monday, 20.1 inches of snow was reported in Flagstaff. Also, winds during the storm reached 70 mph in Bellemont and 53 mph in Flagstaff, according to the National Weather Service.
http://azdailysun.com/articles/2009/12/09/news/20091209_front_208960.txt
Under the heading of 'things I'd rather not do', I have to make it to a doctors appointment. Wading through snow banks isn't as much fun as some would think.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Because I Want More Spaceships

On Monday, Virgin Galactic took the cloak off SpaceShipTwo, which had been under secret development for two years. The company plans to sell suborbital space rides for $200,000 a ticket, offering passengers 2½-hour flights that include about five minutes of weightlessness.
"We want this program to be a whole new beginning in a commercial era of space travel," said Virgin Galactic founder Sir Richard Branson, who partnered with famed aviation designer Burt Rutan on the venture.
The British billionaire hopes to begin passenger flights out of New Mexico sometime in 2011 after a series of rigorous safety tests. Branson said he, his family and Rutan will be the first to fly on SpaceShipTwo.
SpaceShipTwo is based on Rutan's design of a prototype called SpaceShipOne. In 2004, SpaceShipOne captured the $10 million Ansari X Prize by becoming the first privately manned craft to reach space.
Since that historic feat, engineers from Rutan's Scaled Composites LLC have been laboring in the Mojave Desert on a larger design suitable for commercial use.
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2009/dec/07/virgin-galactic-unveils-commercial-spaceship/
Yes, It's Winter
You get to know a bit about the character of a town when you have bad weather. Which locals are out, and the stories of who they've helped while being out.
Myself, I ended up helping a mother and daughter who's car got squished. They were traveling from New Mexico to San Diego, and hadn't planned for a storm, when their car got creamed. I was able to (after medical clearance) secure them lodging, feed them, and direct them toward the best local car rental (already closed because of blizzard; maybe tomorrow) before I had a beer.
I think I like living here. People try to help each other out when things get tough.
(p.s. Home and warm with Bailey's and coffee is good, too)
December 7th
Blizzard Warning
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Of Course God Agrees With Me

Religious people tend to use their own beliefs as a guide in thinking about what God believes, but are less constrained when reasoning about other people’s beliefs, according to new study published in the Nov. 30 early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Nicholas Epley, professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, led the research, which included a series of survey and neuroimaging studies to examine the extent to which people’s own beliefs guide their predictions about God’s beliefs.
The researchers noted that people often set their moral compasses according to what they presume to be God’s standards. “The central feature of a compass, however, is that it points north no matter what direction a person is facing,” they conclude. “This research suggests that, unlike an actual compass, inferences about God’s beliefs may instead point people further in whatever direction they are already facing.”
"And in the beginning, man created God, and saw that it was good."
Friday, December 4, 2009
Newsflash: Extra-Marital Affairs Happen

Normally, I have nothing to say when a celebrity or politician gets caught having sex with someone who is not their spouse. But I'm really tired of the media's obsession with a certain golfer who was caught being human.
Here's the simple fact: extra-marital affairs happen. I'm guessing that they started shortly after the first marriage, but there wasn't a media to obsess about it (unless there's a cave drawing somewhere that I'm not aware of). No one should care except the parties involved. Some things were never intended to be a spectator sport.
Maybe it's my liberal view, but whatever happens between consenting adults is nobodies business but the persons involved.
Except toe sucking...toe suckers are perverts who should be publicly shunned.
Boobies on the Rocks

Minor Frustrations

Thursday, December 3, 2009
Judd Gregg, Obstructionist

Sen. Judd Gregg, (R-NH) has penned the equivalent of an obstruction manual -- a how-to for holding up health care reform -- and has distributed the document to his Republican colleagues.
Insisting that it is "critical that Republican senators have a solid understanding of the minority's rights in the Senate," Gregg makes note of all the procedural tools the GOP can use before measures are considered, when they come to the floor and even after passage.
He highlights the use of hard quorum calls for any motion to proceed, as opposed to a far quicker unanimous consent provision. He reminds his colleagues that, absent unanimous consent, they can force the Majority Leader to read any "full-text substitute amendment." And when it comes to offering amendments to the health care bill, the New Hampshire Republican argues that it is the personification of "full, complete, and informed debate," to "offer an unlimited number of amendments -- germane or non-germane -- on any subject."
The details of Gregg's outline are a clear reflection of the extent to which Republicans are turning to the Byzantine processes of the Senate chamber as a means of holding up reform.
...
Considering the already lethargic pace of health care reform, this is an illuminating reminder of how Republican's are putting their energy into dragging out the process rather than affecting the legislation.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/02/read-it-gop-senator-pens_n_377386.html
(bolds are mine. complete text at the link)
Needless to say, this is not about policy or reform; this is about stopping any form of legislation out of fear that it might help the democrats. Sen. Gregg and his cohorts have no interest in serving their constituents; they only care about a partisan victory. Self-promotion trumps governance in their minds.
And, as a result, the senate has become completely dysfunctional. It's one thing for a minority party to oppose a policy by trying to modify legislation to reflect a different set of ideals. It's quite another thing to try to prevent the body from taking any action at all.
If we had an informed electorate, any senator engaging in this type of behavior, regardless of ideology, should and would be removed from office. To so blatantly say "I want to stop the government dead in it's tracks", rather than trying to govern in a way that you prefer, proves that you are unfit for office in government. Democracy, for all its flaws, requires that elected officials, in some fashion, represent the people who elected them. It's perfectly respectable to vote against a policy you disagree with; it's downright Un-American to prevent that vote from taking place.
(this is completely seperate from the debate as to what kind of health care reform would be best-I'm discussing the efforts to prevent any action at all)
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Now the Shoe's on the Other...
The Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at former U.S. President George W. Bush has himself become the target of a shoe thrower.
While speaking at a press conference in Paris on Tuesday, Muntadhar al-Zeidi, was nearly hit in the face by a shoe thrown by what appeared to be another Iraqi man.
http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpp/news/national/bush-shoe-thrower-120209
(video at the link)
If shoe tossing ever becomes an Olympic event, bet on the Iraqi's.
Speech Response
Obama inherited a complete disaster in Afghanistan. The original goal of destroying Al Qaeda was abandoned in favor of a war in Iraq, and our forces in Afghanistan were left floundering for years without a strategy or the resources to carry out a plan. The puppet government is both corrupt and impotent, and the history of regional tribalism limits the potential for local allies. In short, we're in a hell of a mess.
But simply leaving Afghanistan would be even more dangerous. Aside from the humanitarian disaster that would follow, there is the very real threat of a terrorist haven on the border of a nuclear state that is itself unstable. Abandoning the Af/Pak chaos would greatly increase the risk of future attacks around the world.
So the situation is simply: damned if you leave, damned if you stay, damned if you escalate, damned if you draw down. Obama's plan has some of each; an escalation followed by a draw down, an increased focus on Pakistan, and an attempt to create a working government in Afghanistan. Stabilization, followed by a transition out of Afghanistan.
The speech itself was classic Obama. The tone was clear and somber, with a somewhat intellectual emphasis. While there were the requisite platitudes and rhetoric, Obama articulated his plans and goals with a level of clarity and honesty that the previous president was incapable of. As speeches go, it was strong and effective, and it probably pleased no one. Criticism is already pouring in from both the left and the right.
Will the strategy work? We'll see, but what we had been doing clearly wasn't working. Given the options currently available, Obama's choice is quite plausible. We'll see if it's workable.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
A Cuban Umpire
No, this post is about a Cuban umpire who's defected to the U.S. We've had a lot of Cuban players come here for fame and fortune, but this is the first umpire that I'm aware of:
A top Cuban umpire has defected to the United States.
The Spanish-language newspaper El Nuevo Herald reports that Nelson Diaz arrived in Miami on Sunday with his wife and two daughters.
Diaz worked in the Olympics and the 2006 World Baseball Classic. His 26-year career supposedly ended after he was picked to work the 2009 WBC in Japan but was told by Cuban baseball officials he couldn't go because they didn't trust him.
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/baseball/story/1358803.html
Baseball might be one of the strongest arguments for moving toward more normalized relations with Cuba after 50 years of embargo. The Cuban people are passionate about the game, and the repression of the Castro brothers regime has driven their finest players to defection. If relations were more normalized, those players would return money to their home country, like Venezuelan and Japanese, etc. players do. An open baseball exchange would be a "win-win" for both the U.S. and Cuba.
And, lord knows that we could use better umpires.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Anatomy of a Shrub Up
The report, based in part on a little-noticed 2007 history of the Tora Bora episode by the military’s Special Operations Command, asserts that the consequences of not sending American troops in 2001 to block Mr. bin Laden’s escape into Pakistan are still being felt.
The report blames the lapse for “laying the foundation for today’s protracted Afghan insurgency and inflaming the internal strife now endangering Pakistan.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/world/asia/29torabora.html?_r=1&ref=us
Couple this with the British investigation into the lead up to the war in Iraq, and the dishonesty that shrub and the poodle engaged in to sell the war. Here's some official bombshells:
The military timetable for an invasion of Iraq in 2003 did not give time for UN weapons inspectors in the country to do their job, the former British ambassador
to Washington told the Iraq inquiry in London today.Sir Christopher Meyer said the “unforgiving nature” of the build-up after American forces had been told to prepare for war meant that “we found ourselves scrabbling for the smoking gun”.
For the first time in history, the entire world contemporaneously saw the blatant hypocrisy of war. The best PR money could buy was unable to convince the global audience that even a shred of legitimacy existed in the imperial invasion of Iraq. Only the most fearful Americans even bought it, though as usual that’s more than a majority. Plus of course Israel, to give credit where it’s due.
As usual, Scott Ritter tells the straight truth, and as usual, it ain’t pretty.
As if the 'shrub ups' hadn't done enough damage,not there's Draft Dick Cheney 2012. Just what we need.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
No Comment

Anybody there? I'm starting to wonder, as I haven't gotten any comments recently (even when I give you beer). The ol' 'sitemeter' says folks are stopping by, mostly looking for the Boobies, but nobody comments. Consider this post a "de-lurking" beg, asking for feedback (even if it's just telling me how boring the blog is, or that the boobies aren't as young and firm as you had hoped for). Any comments?
Friday, November 27, 2009
More Beer News - "Tactical Nuclear Penguin"
The BrewDog team have pulled off our most audacious and ambitious project to date, and smashed a world record in the process. We have today, Thursday 26 November 2009, set a new world record after creating the strongest beer in the world. Weighing in at an ABV of 32%, BrewDog’s ‘Tactical Nuclear Penguin’ beats the previous record of 31% held by German beer brand Schorschbraer.
This beer is about pushing the boundaries, it is about taking innovation in beer to a whole new level. It is about achieving something which has never before been done and putting Scotland firmly on the map for progressive, craft beers.
This beer is bold, irreverent and uncompromising. A beer with a soul and a purpose. A statement of intent. A modern day rebellion for the craft beer proletariat in our struggle to over throw the faceless bourgeoisie oppression of corporate, soulless beer.’
The Antarctic name inducing schizophrenia of this uber-imperial stout originates from the amount of time it spent exposed to extreme cold. This beer began life as a 10% imperial stout 18 months ago. The beer was aged for 8 months in an Isle of Arran whisky cask and 8 months in an Islay cask making it our first double cask aged beer. After an intense 16 month, the final stages took a ground breaking approach by storing the beer at -20 degrees for three weeks to get it to 32%.
For the big chill the beer was put into containers and transported to the cold store of a local ice cream factory where it endured 21 days at penguin temperatures. Alcohol freezes at a lower temperature than water. As the beer got colder BrewDog Chief Engineer, Steven Sutherland decanted the beer periodically, only ice was left in the container, creating more intensity of flavours and a stronger concentration of alcohol for the next phase of freezing. The process was repeated until it reached 32%.
A warning on the label states: This is an extremely strong beer, it should be enjoyed in small servings and with an air of aristocratic nonchalance. In exactly the same manner that you would enjoy a fine whisky, a Frank Zappa album or a visit from a friendly yet anxious ghost.
You can buy yours here: http://www.brewdog.com/product.php?id=46
If any of you were wondering what to give me for Christmas, well, a bottle would be much appreciated. I promise to drink it responsibly.
(added: they only made 500 bottles, so I'm being facetious in asking)
(dedicated to badtux the snarky penguin)
Black Friday Boobies
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Happy Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving to all. I'll be spending the day with a gathering of friends at the home of the Flagsquatch*, as I did last year. I'm about to start cooking several side dishes to contribute to the potluck, which is a good thing. Griselda (my bird in the pic above) finds my cooking extremely entertaining and exciting, and she's already voicing her opinion on my kitchen activities. Thanksgiving is always a wonderful excuse to indulge my culinary creativity. Let's see if I can surprise some folks.
Thanksgiving used to be traditionally spent with family, but over the years the family has dwindled to the point that we're too few to gather. My sisters live in different states, and we really don't enjoy each others company enough to travel on a holiday. Exchanging polite phone calls is much easier.
It's always fun to join in a group of friends for a feast and some football (too bad this years games are such turkeys), and there will be beer. Hope you all have plenty of food, fun, and loved ones to share today!
Added: for my Native American friends, Happy "watch your immigration policy" day!
* the Flagsquatch is a rare local curiosity. He's larger than the traditional Yeti, but not quite as hairy.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
A Turkey Story
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Thought
That, or "death to the poor."
Marketing Bad Ideas
College football's Bowl Championship Series, the system for selecting which two teams will compete in the national championship game, has hired former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer to improve its tarnished image among football fans.
The BCS system is pretty much universally hated by most college football fans. I doubt that even Ari can come up with a grand enough lie to make it popular.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Art

I have this woodcut hanging on my wall. It is among my favorite artwork.
Rewarding Good Works
The bill "amends the Small Business Act to establish in the Small Business Administration (SBA) the Office of Native American Affairs, administered by a new SBA Associate Administrator, to increase Native American entrepreneurship [and] authorizes the SBA's Administrator (acting through the Associate Administrator) to: (1) operate a Tribal Business Information Centers program that provides Native American populations with business training and entrepreneurial development assistance; (2) designate entities as centers; (3) contribute agency personnel and resources to the centers; and (4) make grants to the centers."
The bill was introduced by conservative Arizona Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, whose district includes the largest Indian reservation in the U.S. Every single Arizona Democrat voted for it, of course.
Given that this district includes a huge number of impoverished Native Americans, the bill could be a huge benefit throughout the region.
So, well done congresswoman! We thank you.
Serious Journalism
And didn't candidate Obama promise to fix the college football Bowl Championship Series?
Many people indeed blame Obama not only for this year's lackluster football season but for all these other problems as well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/20/AR2009112002416.html
Obama hasn't fixed the BCS, so therefore his presidency is a failure. I'm glad Hiatt is covering the important news.
Added: Obama never said he'd fix the BCS; he said he'd prefer a playoff system. Ruling over the NCAA isn't really part of his job description.
Friday, November 20, 2009
UC Berkeley Protests
A group of about 60 UC Berkeley students and supporters barricaded themselves inside Wheeler Hall early this morning in the most dramatic display of disobedience on the campus since the UC regents voted to raise student undergraduate tuition by 32 percent Thursday.
The group entered Wheeler Hall around 6 a.m. and three students were arrested immediately for burglary as they moved heavy furniture to block doorways on the second floor, according campus police.
Andi Walden, a student among those occupying the building, who spoke to The Chronicle by phone, said the protesters had enough food and water to last four days.
"We decided it was necessary to take action," said Walden, a Middle Eastern studies and political science major. "A lot of people have been saying, 'Who's university? Our university.' So we decided to put that into action."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/20/BA611ANSAB.DTL&tsp=1
A 32% hike in tuition will force quite a few students out of the University, so they have plenty of reason to act. You Go, Kids! Keep the Berkeley traditions alive!
(added on Sat. morning: The kids have been arrested. Bummer, but no surprise)
Resource Depletion Humor

We at Pygalgia are all too aware of resource depletion. We've read (ok, sometimes skimmed) all the reports and books and we know that air, water, oil, coal, metals (gold, silver, copper, platinum, phosphorous, etc) are close to running dry.
If you pick up any of these reports or texts, you'll be presented with the familiar and famous "Hubbert Curve" that depicts the general depletion of a particular resource base.
Many commentators in the world focus on plotting such resource depletion curves against things like GDP (US or World), or Per-Capita-Income, or some such measurement.
But there's something even more important: the collapse of oil production in relation to the collapse of the production of good rock-and-roll music.
The roots of "Rock" music can really be though of as starting in the 1950s, but didn't really gain ground until the 1960s (the growth and discovery years) and then continued on throughout the decades.
But, as the previous chart shows, basically rock-and-roll music shot its wad early and has declined precipitously ever since. That's why you were stuck with Toto during the late seventies and early eighties (that early eighties bump came not from the North Sea Field or Alaskan production, but from the influence of Punk Rock finally crossing the pond and gaining traction in the US).
Unfortunately, it's been on a decline ever since.
Now, I love the Beatles. I can still appreciate The Band, some good Clapton, The Dead, Three Dog Night or Creedence. Hell, because I can still appreciate them probably explains the fact that there's still so many "classic" rock stations around - the best, low hanging chords were strummed the first. Those previously mentioned bands lucked out because they were on the rise, at least in terms of production. Folks like the Boss or Elvis Costello had to ride the backside of depletion - it gives a lot more nuance to "Tramps like us, baby we were born to run" now doesn't it? And shit, half of Springsteen's songs were about the romance of the automobile anyways....
Hell, I might even appreciate something like John Denver's "Thank God I'm a Country Boy!" as looking for ways out of our energy decline in the late 1970s. Plowin', farmin', playin' the fiddle, being sustainable - he does even mention limos as being uncool.
Now, all jests aside, we understand the importance of resource depletion. The next twenty years or so, as the resource base depletes even more rapidly, are going to be challenging for everyone involved. As people have to get used to doing with less - and more importantly, accepting doing with less, there is the possibility that many folks won't take kindly to it, to use a phrase.
That's why humor can be so effective in certain situations, and why I'm trying to be a little bit funny in this post.
To me, probably the best consequence of the development of the immense frontal cerebral cortex in the mammilian ape was the concept of humor.
Humor can overcome so many situations - by causing all participants to view a situation (somewhat) objectively and to provide contextual comments (sometimes humorous) about it, that I think it is crucial to our species survival.
That's why I so much like the graph (completely unattributed, although I think I got it off The Big Picture & Barry would have the link(s)).
Please, everyone, although the backslide of the Peak may be disheartening, remember that it could be worse: you have no gas in your car, but the radio still works and all you can get is..."When you get caught between the moon and New York City..." from Christopher Cross. Or some Milli-Vanilli.
Which, strangely enough, is about the pablum that our energy polices have been these past few decades
I rest my case.
From Bad To Worse?

A new Rasmussen poll finds that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) could potentially be in trouble with Republican voters back home in Arizona, where he's often faced criticism from the right for his views on immigration.
In a potential Republican primary for his 2010 re-election, the 2008 GOP nominee for President is in a dead heat with former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, a hard-line conservative who lost his seat in the 2006 Democratic wave.
The numbers: McCain 45%, Hayworth 43%, with a ±4% margin of error. A third candidate who is already in the race, former Minuteman leader Chris Simcox, gets 4%.
From the pollster's analysis: "For McCain, the GOP Primary appears to be his biggest challenge since no major Democrats in the state have stepped forward yet to run against him."
That's right, J. D. Hayworth! A former sportscaster who's even dumber than Kyl (or an eggplant), a congressional loser who's opposed to everything after 1958 (I've met him, and I'm trying to be as kind as I can). Proving that no matter how bad you think it is, it could be worse (and don't get me started on Simcox). At least McCain is (sometimes) coherent.
Sadly, there's no democrat candidate (so far) who has a snowball's chance in Phoenix of winning the senate seat in 2010. Janet Napolitano was our most likely hope until she accepted the homeland security gig. So far, nobody else has come forward who's a serious challenger.
Dear America.
We apologize.
Sincerely,
Arizona Democrats (on the endangered species list since...forever).
Staring at a Boobie
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Culinary Assistance
(except Ducky, who has difficulty with the recipe for boiled water)
Palin: Even Dumber than Shrub

(pic from Album3)
I really would prefer to ignore her, but then she says something so mind numbingly stupid that my brain freezes and I must make a comment, if only to get un-stuck:
"We have allies who are as concerned about Ahmadinejad's actions as we are. We need to be working closer with France, and with Britain, and start, not just considering, but seriously taking steps towards the sanctions that we hear all about but we never see any actions towards, though.
"Cutting off the imports into Iraq, of their refined petroleum products. They're reliant -- 40 to 45 percent of their energy supply is reliant on those imports. We have some control over there.
"And some of the beneficial international monetary deals that Iraq benefits from -- we can start implementing some sanctions there and start really shaking things up, and telling Ahmadinejad, nobody is going to stand for this."
As if Iraq hasn't suffered enough.
OK, we know this was a simple mistake. Ms. Palin probably merely misspoke. Unless she truly is unable to distinguish between Iraq and Iran, a distinction that even Shrub was able to grasp...barely.
(video at the link, just so you know that I'm not making this up)
Dot Connecting
In the investigation of the Ft. Hood shootings, the question that keeps being repeated is "was there a failure to connect the dots?" (For this post, I'm ignoring the issue of terrorism vs. mass murder. The problem of 'dot connecting' is the same regardless of motivation.) Could the slaughter have been prevented? Were there enough warning signs that authorities should have taken action?
We go through this process whenever a massive tragedy occurs. After the Virginia Tech shootings, there were revelations that the shooter was deeply disturbed. The investigation of 9/11 revealed that there were many pieces of evidence that the plotters were working up to something big. In the aftermath of the Oklahoma City bombing reams of evidence came out that Timothy McVeigh had spent months building up to a massive anti-government act. In all these cases there were many pieces that in hindsight were "dots"; the question is whether they should have been "connected" in such a way as to reveal the picture that would prevent the ensuing tragedy.
During the years that I worked as a mental health counselor, one of the most important parts of my work was suicide prevention. The population of psychiatric clients includes a very high percentage of people at high risk for suicide. Sadly, despite our best efforts and 'expertise', some clients did commit suicide. When a suicide did occur, the treatment team would meet to review the case; to try to "connect the dots". While the goal was to hopefully find ways to prevent future suicides, there was the natural human tendency to assign blame: somebody failed to "connect the dots".
As I'm watching the process unfold (again) with the Ft. Hood shootings, I'm remembering how difficult it is to actually connect dots. In hindsight, here are a whole bunch of disturbing signs; do they add up to a clear picture of impending violence? Is there enough evidence to take action to intervene? Is the goal to prevent future incidents, or to blame somebody for the incident that occurred?
Example: You have a neighbor, "Mr. X"; he's anti-social, often angry. He blames "Y" for all that is wrong in his world. He might have weapons. What signs would be clear enough for you to call the police about "Mr. X"? How do you differentiate between an eccentric crank and a potential killer? Remember that our society respects an individuals freedom (in theory, anyway), and that "Mr. X" hasn't done anything yet. How many dots connect and what picture (if any) do they reveal?
Intervention is a very inexact "science"; you never really know what might have been "prevented" because there is no way to measure a "non-incident". Maybe a tragedy has been prevented, but maybe prejudice and hysteria have needlessly disrupted a persons life or deprived them of there individual freedom.
I don't have any answers; I hope the investigation will focus on trying to find ways to prevent future tragedies by helping people who are deeply disturbed, rather than degenerating into finding someone to blame. The reality is that life is full of uncertainties and that tragedies occur daily. Preventing atrocities is an admirable goal, but not all dots connect into a clear picture.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Extreme Beer News
But don't confuse "extreme" with "strong," Koch says. "Extreme is bringing something new to the brewing process. It's like creating a whole new genre of music, as opposed to just playing the same music louder."
Nanny State, an "imperial mild" from the BrewDog microbrewery in Fraserburgh, Scotland, is the anti-Utopias, but just as extreme. It measures 1.1 percent alcohol; you'd be hard-pressed to get tipsy on a case of it. But it is crammed with hops. The brewer's claimed level of 225 international bitterness units is the most extreme I've ever heard. (IBUs measure a beer's level of alpha acids, the primary bittering compound in hops. For purposes of comparison, Budweiser measures about 12 IBUs; Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, 37; a typical imperial IPA, 75 to 100.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/17/AR2009111700693.html
Just the name "nanny state" is enough to keep me away, but 225 IBU's for 1.1% alcohol? Why bother? Just drink unfermented hop juice.
Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should.
Upcoming Right Wing Screaming Point
After just a semester at Chowan, Mohammed thought his English was good enough to move on. So he transferred to North Carolina A&T State University in Greensboro. It's Rev. Jesse Jackson's alma mater. And it's where Mohammed began studying mechanical engineering.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120516152
Yes! Jesse Jackson and terrorists all in one neat package! Coincidence? The wingers won't think so. I'm offering a (very small) prize for the first right wing pundit to make the connection.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
The Tolerance of a Small Elephant
It was true with the illicit drugs of my youth, and it's true with pharmaceuticals today: I have the tolerance of a small elephant.
Monday, November 16, 2009
On This Day
Sarah Who?

Sunday, November 15, 2009
Afghanistan Assessment
There's been a substantial change in Obama administration rhetoric in the last week or two, which has only accelerated after Gen. Eikenberry put his spanner in the escalationists' works. Hillary Clinton, talking to ABC News this Sunday, gives the clearest indication yet that the administration is looking for an exit.
"We're not interested in staying in Afghanistan. We have no long-term stake there. We want that to be made very clear," she told ABC news.
"We agree that our goal here is to defeat Al-Qaeda. That has been a clear goal and a mission from the president ever since he made his commitment of additional troops back in the spring."
"And we understand that the Afghans themselves need help in order to defend themselves against the Taliban. Those are mutually reinforcing missions but our highest obligation is to the American people," she said.
Gone is any talk of being there for as long as it takes to defeat the Taliban, or of success being something that "we'll know it when we see it". Instead, the Taliban are clearly Afghanistan's problem and Al Qaeda is America's - and a "mission accomplished" banner can be hung around the latter, at least as far as Afghanistan goes.
Here's what I now expect when Obama finally announces his decision: Afghanistan will get "help in order to defend themselves against the Taliban", more troops but the bulk with a clear training mission, and at the same time Karzai will be handed a three to five year set of benchmarks and a timetable for U.S. withdrawal.
Obama has no intention of heading into the 2012 election with no end in sight on Afghanistan. Thankfully, political necessity in this case matches with the smart thing to do strategically.
http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/2009/11/hillary-prepares-the-ground-for-an-exit-timetable.html
By stressing the need for an exit strategy rather than endless escalation, Obama is clearly trying to stay (somewhat) true to his campaign positions. And trying to get re-elected in 2012.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Sometimes the Old Ways are Better
Companies that have begun marketing drinks that combine alcohol with caffeine will have to
answer to the FDA, the agency announced.Caffeine is not on the agency's list of ingredients that may be legally added to alcoholic beverages, Sharfstein said in a telephone press conference.
In addition, he said, several recent studies have indicated that combining caffeine with alcohol is very unsafe. (See APHA: Mixing Alcohol and Energy Drinks Heightens Injury Risk and Energy Drink Labels Don't Predict High Caffeine Jolt)
The agency decided to investigate after receiving a letter signed by 18 state attorneys general and one city attorney urging the FDA to take action against such beverages.
The letter cited research indicating that the combination drinks heightened the risk of motor vehicle accidents and sexual assaults, Sharfstein said.
Under pressure from state authorities, two big marketers of alcoholic beverages, MillerCoors and Anheuser-Busch, had previously agreed to pull combination drinks named Bud Extra, Tilt, and Sparks off the market.
However, smaller companies are still selling drinks with as much caffeine as a cup of coffee and up to 9.9% alcohol under such names as LiquidCharge, Joose, and Four Loko.
I've never tried the beverages under scrutiny, and the few "energy" drinks I've tried taste like (what I imagine to be) weasel piss. But what about Kahlua? Or a shot of Bailey's (perfect on a snowy morning) in your coffee? Back when I was bar tending, I learned to mix a whole slew of coffee drinks. Will the FDA be coming after those?
Wish they'd focus there energy on e. coli and such, instead.
But Why?
Still scratching my head about it.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Moonwater
It turns out there's plenty of water on the moon - at least near the lunar south pole, scientist said Friday.
"Indeed, yes, we found water. And we didn't find just a little bit, we found a significant amount," said Anthony Colaprete, a principal project investigator at NASA's Ames Research Center.
The discovery came from an analysis of data from a spacecraft NASA intentionally crashed into the moon last month.
Colaprete estimated the impact kicked up at least 25 gallons of water.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120387476
Most interesting, with the possibilities for further lunar exploration.
Now, where should we bomb next?
A Victory for Due Process
— Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the self-described mastermind of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and four other men accused in the plot will be prosecuted in federal court in New York City, the United States attorney general announced Friday.
The decision marks a milestone in the administration’s efforts to close the Guantánamo prison, something that President Obama announced shortly after taking office that he would do within a year, but that has proved difficult to achieve because of uncertainty about what to do with the detainees housed there.
Shrub and his crew of criminals used 9/11 to embark on a program of lawlessness, torture, and war without end, but now that they're gone we can regain some of our credibility by returning to the rule of law. This trial will be tainted by the torture of KSM, but the preponderance of evidence should be enough to gain a conviction. Legally.
Politically, this decision is going to generate a lot of screaming from the usual (never) rightwing rabble, but the simple fact is: it's the right thing to do.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
An Afghanistan Plan
President Obama is pushing his national security team for more detail about an exit strategy for U.S. forces fighting in Afghanistan.
The president met with his advisers Wednesday to chart new strategy for the war. Obama went into this latest strategy session with what the White House had called four "final" options on the table.
Each involved sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, but would require different troop levels and would embrace different goals for the U.S. involvement there.
At the high end, there's the 40,000 or so troops that the top commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, says he needs to pull off a successful counter-insurgency. At the low end, an option of 10,000 extra troops, mostly working as trainers for the Afghan army and police force. One middle option would focus on a narrower, counter-terrorism mission, while another, said to be endorsed by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, backs sending 34,000 or so extra U.S. troops while calling on NATO to contribute several thousand more.
After the 2 1/2 hour meeting Wednesday, two administration officials told NPR that the president does not plan to accept any of the options in their current form. The officials said the president pushed his team for more detail about an exit strategy for U.S. forces. They said he wants to make clear to the Afghan government that the U.S. commitment is not open-ended.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120336017
Here's the real question that needs to be answered: What the hell are we trying to achieve in Afghanistan? Are our goals realistic or attainable? Because just sending more troops in the name of "winning" is merely a repeat of the mistake of Vietnam. Professor Cole explains:
Obama is said to have rejected all the plans so far presented to him, insofar as none leads to a foreseeable end-game.
If AP is right, this development is encouraging. All along, the things missing from Washington's plans for Afghanistan have been a firm, specific set of goals, a detailed means of attaining them, and a way to know when they have been attained.
How unlikely the big counter-insurgency dreams of some military analysts are to result in success is apparent in this recent Frontline report, in which the US military outpost in a village in Helmand never succeeds in getting the locals to open a single shop in the bazaar under US protection, and never succeeds in stopping the constant sniping at them by Taliban forces.Cole: Let's back up and talk about what the goal is in Afghanistan. Your strategy and your tactics are going to come out of your goal. I'm a little bit afraid that, in regard to the goal, you see a lot of mission creep. The goal has become standing up an Afghan government and an Afghan military that's relatively stable and can control the country. There's a lot of state-building involved in that.
I am a severe skeptic on this score. I don't think that's a proper goal for the U.S. military. I think we are dealing with a tribal society of people who, as a matter of course, are organized by clan and have feuds with each other, and feuds with other tribes, and feuds with their cousins. I think that Washington misinterprets this feuding as Talibanism, and thinks that if you put a lot of troops in there, you can pacify the country and settle it down.
I just think it is a misreading of the character of the country. Afghanistan is a country where localism is important, where people don't like the central government coming in and bothering them. There's a sense in which the communist government of the 1980s, backed by the Soviet Union, wanted to drag Afghanistan kicking and screaming into the late 20th century, and to do that you had to impose central government policy on the countryside and on the villagers. And the villagers rose up and kicked the Soviets and the communists out. They were outraged, in part, against the centralizing tendency of Kabul.
So, I just think that Afghanistan is a country that needs a light touch. You just have to accept that there's going to be a certain amount of disorder in the countryside as long as people are organized tribally. And if you put 100,000 or 150,000 Western troops in there, that's just more people to feud with.
Finding an exit strategy for Afghanistan will be more challenging than it was for Iraq. At least Iraq had an infrastructure (albeit dysfunctional) prior to our invasion, so setting up a semblance of a government and leaving is actually attainable. No such infrastructure exists in Afghanistan, and it would be delusional to think we can build one. Again, Professor Cole:
Cole: If you are asking what I think is a plausible goal, I'd say it is training an Afghan army and police force as best you can. But you are just going to have to accept that it's going to be a weak government. You can shore it up to some extent, but you need to shore it up behind the scenes. It can't be seen to be a puppet government, because that will undermine its legitimacy.
A government that can provide more services to people is good. Road building is good. Encouraging the markets to open is good. But as far as fighting what the U.S. is calling Taliban, they are really just regional warlords. They might have a tactical alliance with the old Taliban of Mullah Omar, but it's a mistake to sweep them all up into a single category . . . '
As with Iraq, getting out will be much more difficult than getting in. Shrub, the idiot, was content to invade and then wage war without end, but now Obama is stuck with trying to clean up this mess. The reality is that there are no easy ways out of Afghanistan: simply pulling out would leave behind an 'opium and terrorist' incubator as well as a humanitarian hell, but blind escalation merely postpones the inevitable while further draining American lives and wealth. In the end, we will leave Afghanistan; the question is really what we leave behind and when we leave it. Not an easy choice.
So I support Obama's decision to reject the current proposals. I only hope he can come up with a workable plan that will actually work to get us out of Afghanistan.
(for the purposes of this post, I'm not addressing what a huge mistake it was to start these wars; the past cannot be changed: we're there. The question is what to do now.)
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
On Veteran's Day
Now I dream of a day when we can stop generating so many new veterans, or damaging and disabling so many of those who are serving our nation.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Birds Don't Understand Physics
The Large Hadron Collider, the world's most powerful particle accelerator, just cannot catch a break. First, a coolant leak destroyed some of the magnets that guide the energy beam. Then LHC officials postponed the restart of the machine to add additional safety features. Now, a bird dropping a piece of bread on a section of the accelerator has, according to the Register, shut down the whole operation.
The bird dropped some bread on a section of outdoor machinery, eventually leading to significant over heating in parts of the accelerator. The LHC was not operational at the time of the incident, but the spike produced so much heat that had the beam been on, automatic failsafes would have shut down the machine.
This incident won't delay the reactivation of the facility later this month, but exposes yet another vulnerability of the what might be the most complex machine ever built. With freak accident after freak accident piling up over at CERN, the idea of time traveling particles returning from the future to prevent their own discovery is beginning to seem less and less far fetched.http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-11/bread-loving-bird-shuts-down-lhc
Maybe I'm wrong; maybe birds do understand physics, and were trying to prevent time traveling particles. Just a thought.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Understanding Priorities
The grand adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan have run between 108 and 140 billion per year over the past 8 years, with a total cost around 1.3 trillion so far (actual number is probably higher).
The annual defense appropriations bill passed a few weeks ago came in at 680 billion (they did have to work late on this, so it includes the cost for congressional pizza delivery), for 1 year.
Our priorities are clear. We'd rather spend our money on damaging bodies than on healing them. Bombs: they're more entertaining than colonoscopy's.
Video of an old Friend
Here's a vid of him with Blind Boy Paxton and Frank Fairfield (Dom's the one singing, seated in the middle):
or go here for more:http://www.boingboing.net/2009/11/06/nouveau-oldtime-jam.html
(yeah, I don't usually post videos...I'm making an exception)
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Health Care Hash
But there are some good points to the bill as well:
* coverage of as many as 36 million uninsured Americans
* ends subsidies of private insurers under medicare advantage
* closes the "donut hole" in medicare drug coverage
* allows medicare to negotiate drug prices
* prohibits denials based on prior conditions, and ends rescission's except in cases of fraud
* funds more education of doctors and nurses
* includes the seeds of a real public option
Do we deserve better? Yes. Is this as good as we can get at this time? Probably.
Speaker Pelosi said she had the votes, and in the end she did. My own congress waffle, Ann Kirkpatrick, ended up voting "yes" after much dithering, as I thought she would (and she actually had enough spine to vote against Stupak, which mildly surprised me).
With our current dysfunctional congressional system, this compromise is probably all we can get. But it really is a shame that women's rights were sacrificed to get it.
Now it's on to the Senate, where the circus will be even more ridiculous. Lord only knows what we'll be looking at by the end of that process.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Jasmine-Chocolate
A distinguished, older gentleman says to me "Thank you for that Jasmine-Chocolate recipe. It was the greatest".
To which, I said "Huh?" as wisely as I could.
A case of mistaken identity, as you can tell.
But...
I wonder....
What the Turlock is...
"Jasmine-Chocolate"?
For Baseball Fans
The GIANTS WIN!
(only certain readers will appreciate this)
Friday, November 6, 2009
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Maine
What I do find somewhat ironic is that this is Maine. The 'christian' opposition to homosexuality is based on Leviticus 20:13, which calls it an "abomination". Leviticus 11:9-12 calls shellfish an "abomination", but somehow I doubt that Maine voters would pass a law banning Lobster, would they?
What's that word? Um...'hypocrisy'?
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Off Year Elections
The pundits always say that off year elections are a referendum on the administration, and this year's will be no exception. Regardless of the results, the so-called "experts" will spend many hours discussing "what this means for Obama".
Allow me to disagree (not that my opinion counts for much). None of the three main elections today reflect on Obama very much. The candidates, issues, and agendas are quite different than those that decided 2008. It's a comparison of apples and coconuts.
The New Jersey governors race is a continuation of the unique political process that is "Jersey". John Corzine may be an incumbent Democrat, but he's hardly a liberal "poster boy" for Obama style politics. He's carrying all the baggage for a state government that is widely perceived as corrupt, and the only reason that this race is a toss up is that his opponent, Chris Christie, looks even more corrupt (shrubs AG scandal). Throw in a third party wacko, Chris Daggett, for laughs, and it's too close to call. But it's certainly not about Obama. Jersey's problems are bigger than which party is in power in DC.
Virginia's race for governor might look more like a referendum on the surface, but the results will more likely reflect the candidates than any agenda. The republican Bob McDonnell is already being touted as a rising star in the GOP, as he's (relatively) young, handsome, and glib. The democrat, Creigh Deeds, may be the most uninspiring, uncharismatic candidate in recent years. His speeches seem to have been written with the intent to hypnotize rocks, not to inspire voters. Given that Virginia is already a pretty conservative state, not even Obama has enough charm to make lemonade from this lemon.
Then we get the race that has has the most entertainment value: NY-23's congressional race. Not that any of the candidates really deserve a house seat, but it has been a truly bizarre race. The democrat, Bill Owens, is beyond "blue dog" conservative, but the republicans provided the real entertainment. The republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, was deemed 'too liberal' (or sane), and forced to drop out by the conservative party candidate, Doug Hoffman, an incredibly uninformed, disinterested, tea party hero who's equal parts arrogance and ignorance. The wingnuts love him for that. Regardless of who wins, neither Owens or Hoffman deserve a seat in congress. "None of the above" would be the best choice, and should win by a landslide.
So, despite all the pundit bloviating, none of these elections will have any real impact on the Obama administration. None reflect political "coat tails" or the administration's agenda.
In fact it's not all that entertaining, even for a political junkie like me. Too many clowns, not enough trapeze artists. Maybe 2010 will have a better circus.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Ultra Trivial Trivia
Both songs are originally by Jerry Joseph (http://www.jerryjoseph.com/main.aspx); Panic only covers them.