Sunday, January 27, 2008

South Carolina Results

Obama won big, by a much larger margin than the polls predicted. But I'm most struck by the huge turnout. Over half a million votes! In each of the early primaries Democrats have had record, or near record, turnout:

Almost final results:

99% of precincts reporting

Barack Obama295,09154%
Hillary Clinton141,12827%
John Edwards93,55219%
Dennis Kucinich5510%

And some other numbers:

  • Total 2008 South Carolina Primary Turnout

    Democratic: about 530,322
    Republican: about 446,000

  • Obama received more votes than all Democrats in the 2004 South Carolina Democratic Primary (292,383)
  • Obama received more votes in this primary than George W. Bush received in 2000 when he beat John McCain (Bush won 293,652 votes)
  • Obama has won more votes than McCain and Huckabee won in South Carolina--combined.

As with the Iowa caucus, Obama won big with younger voters. The "youth vote" has long been the holy grail for Democrats, and Obama seems to be getting them to actually show up and vote:

* For all the recent speculation about race and gender, here’s a tip about the real divide: age.

Among voters between 18 and 24, Obama beat Clinton, 66% to 25% (a 41-point gap).
Among voters between 25 and 29, Obama beat Clinton, 70% to 21% (a 49-point gap).
Among voters between 30 and 39, Obama beat Clinton, 62% to 23% (a 39-point gap).
Among voters between 40 and 49, Obama beat Clinton, 61% to 25% (a 36-point gap).
Among voters between 50 and 64, Obama beat Clinton, 51% to 26% (a 25-point gap).
Among voters 65 and older, Clinton beat Obama, 40% to 32% (an 8-point gap in the other direction).

There is still a long way to go, but the current trends seem to indicate how toxic shrub has been for the Republicans. Now we'll see if that carries over on Feb. 5th:

That all changes in 10 days' time, when New York, Illinois and California
are among the 15 states holding primaries in a virtual nationwide primary. Another seven states and American Samoa will hold Democratic caucuses on the same day.

I'll be getting a first hand view on Feb. 5th, as I'll be running a polling place on the local University campus. If the youth turnout in Arizona is high, I'll be among the first to know.

Side note: I'll be posting later on my views of each of the candidates. I'm not endorsing anybody, and my own preferred candidates are out of the race, but since I have a blog I'm allowed to share my opinions.

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