Passed

As a sometimes political blogger, I guess I'm contractually obligated to post about the passage of health care reform. It passed 219-212 last night.

First, there's a sense of relief at finally passing something. HCR has been up and down like a kangaroo in the mating season over the past year, and the machinations in the process have been amazingly frustrating. The disingenuous and dishonest advertising against the bill was truly appalling. Or maybe it really does mandate gay abortions of Grandma.

The bill itself is a piece of astounding mediocrity. It barely meets any definition of "reform", and is far too weak to actually meet the needs of the American people. But (in my opinion) it's is on balance better than doing nothing. I do have a personal bias here; as a walking, talking, living, breathing 'pre-existing condition', the provisions will help me in the future. Not a great amount of help, but at least it's something.

Sure, I'd prefer "single payer", or at least the "public option", but the reality of our current political climate made that impossible. There just aren't enough progressive votes to overcome republican obstructionism.

In a way, the simple fact that the bill was passed is an important success. The GOP threw everything they had at defeating it, and they lost. Moving forward on financial reform, jobs, energy, etc. will now be possible as a result of winning this battle.

On a side note, I don't think I'd want to get into a poker match with Nancy Pelosi. I might quibble with her style, but when it came time to whip the votes she played her hand quite deftly.

A Real Bracket

And you can vote for your favorite evil.

(found at A Spork in the Drawer)

Ah, Spring

Happy Vernal Equinox to all!

Over the past week, I've had some actual spring weather, and the snow mound outside my door has almost completely melted away. Today is mid-40's and windy, which is pretty normal around here. Much warmer forecast for the next few days.

Also, Happy Nowruz to any Iranian/Persian readers.

Seven Years

Seven years ago today, shrub embarked on the worst mistake in United States history: the invasion of Iraq began. The litany of lies that lead up to the invasion is now well documented, but the real basic fact was always clear to many of us: invading Iraq was a really bad idea. Here's some basic numbers:

American War Dead in Iraq: 4385

American War Injured: 40,000+

Iraqi War Dead: 2,000,000

Iraqi War Wounded: Millions

Iraqi War Displaced: Millions

Add at least a trillion dollars spent, and for what? Iraq has a marginal semblance of a democracy, but nothing close to stability. Withdrawing from Iraq is progressing slowly and painfully, and it may be many years before the last American troops actually leave. Getting out has always been much more difficult than getting in.

The atrocities of the war will continue to tarnish America's global image for at least a generation. Sadly, it's doubtful that the perpetrators behind the illegal invasion and ensuing crimes against humanity will ever face justice for their actions, and that is itself a crime. The past cannot be changed, but it would go a long way toward repairing the damage to hold those responsible accountable.

More here:

Seven Years (March 19, 2003)

Added: of course, no one may notice this because today is also World Sleep Day.

A Boobie in the Branches

It's Friday, so here's a Red-Footed Boobie on a branch.

Baseball Memories

On a sports blog that I frequent, the question was "your first baseball memory?", so here's mine:

My Father came and took me out of school, telling my teacher that I had a dentist appointment (I knew I didn’t), and we went to the ‘stick. We got cheap bleacher seats (we were pretty low income at that time) because Dad insisted that I watch “the greatest baseball player ever”, center fielder Willie Mays. I was 5 years old, but I was impressed. Sadly, the Giants lost to the Cubs (Ferguson Jenkins pitched a great game), but Mays made a terrific catch to rob Ron Santo of what looked like a sure double. And I became hooked on baseball for life.
On the way home Dad said "we don’t need to tell your mother about this little trip" which was rather silly. My Mother was a very perceptive woman, and an avid baseball fan herself. She assumed that we’d gone to the game, and was rather jealous that she’d missed it.
Dad and I shared many, many more games, right up to a few months before his passing in ‘92, but it’s that very first one that is firmly etched into my memory.

So, in honor of spring, what is your first baseball memory?

Safety First

After an illustrious 183-year run, the annual Whitsun cheese-rolling event on Cooper’s Hill in Gloucester has been canceled, partly for safety reasons. Add “chasing cheese wheels down a steep hill” to the list of things that England has deemed unsafe.

There are dozens of injuries every year among the men and women who hurl themselves down the hill in a bid to catch the cheese, but these are mainly minor.

However, the sheer number of people flooding in to watch the event has led to increasing concern from the police and councils.

This year's cheese-rolling was due to take place on May 31. But Richard Jefferies, of the event's organising committee, said: 'We have had to cancel on the advice of the police and local authorities.

'Last year 15,000 spectators tried to come to the event, by far the most we have ever seen, and we just could not cope.

'As well as concerns about the safety of the crowd and the competitors, landowners were worried by the amount of damage done by people climbing over fences and that sort of thing.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257445/Gloucester-cheese-rolling-event-Coopers-Hill-cancelled-200-years.html

Yes, running down a hill chasing a 7 lb. wheel of cheese might be dangerous, but it was the size of the audience that prompted the most concern. The event became too popular for it's own health.
Kind of sad, really. If you can't watch a bunch of fools chase cheese down a hill, what can you watch?
(yeah, I've been avoiding serious politics in the past few days)

Synthetic Photosynthesis?

This is another of the scientific breakthroughs that could lead to some great innovations:

For decades, farmers have been trying to find ways to get more energy out of the sun.

In natural photosynthesis, plants take in solar energy and carbon dioxide and then convert it to oxygen and sugars. The oxygen is released to the air and the sugars are dispersed throughout the plant — like that sweet corn we look for in the summer. Unfortunately, the allocation of light energy into products we use is not as efficient as we would like. Now engineering researchers at the University of Cincinnati are doing something about that.

The researchers are finding ways to take energy from the sun and carbon from the air to create new forms of biofuels, thanks to a semi-tropical frog species. Their results have just been published online in “Artificial Photosynthesis in Ranaspumin-2 Based Foam” (March 5, 2010) in the journal “Nano Letters.” (It will be a cover story for the print edition in the fall.)

Research Assistant Professor David Wendell, student Jacob Todd and College of Engineering and Applied Science Dean Carlo Montemagno co-authored the paper, based on research in Montemagno’s lab in the Department of Biomedical Engineering. Their work focused on making a new artificial photosynthetic material which uses plant, bacterial, frog and fungal enzymes, trapped within a foam housing, to produce sugars from sunlight and carbon dioxide.

“The advantage for our system compared to plants and algae is that all of the captured solar energy is converted to sugars, whereas these organisms must divert a great deal of energy to other functions to maintain life and reproduce,” says Wendell. “Our foam also uses no soil, so food production would not be interrupted, and it can be used in highly enriched carbon dioxide environments, like the exhaust from coal-burning power plants, unlike many natural photosynthetic systems.”

He adds, “In natural plant systems, too much carbon dioxide shuts down photosynthesis, but ours does not have this limitation due to the bacterial-based photo-capture strategy.”

“This new technology establishes an economical way of harnessing the physiology of living systems by creating a new generation of functional materials that intrinsically incorporates life processes into its structure,” says Dean Montemagno. “Specifically in this work it presents a new pathway of harvesting solar energy to produce either oil or food with efficiencies that exceed other biosolar production methodologies. More broadly it establishes a mechanism for incorporating the functionality found in living systems into systems that we engineer and build.”

The next step for the team will be to try to make the technology feasible for large-scale applications like carbon capture at coal-burning power plants.

http://www.uc.edu/news/NR.aspx?id=11558

I love posting new technologies that could change our energy systems. Photosynthesis is the root source of life as we know it; the 'energy' that runs the planet. If we can develop this further, it could help solve climate change and generate fuel or food in the future.

One Way To Get Your Name In The Paper

Happened to pick up yesterday's local newspaper, and there on the front page:

'Code 3: Skier buried in avalanche'

is a picture of an old friend and river running buddy. He's one of the people who I first learned white water rafting from, and an avid back country skier. Thankfully, he was rescued quickly. His description:

"It was like swimming Grand Canyon-sized whitewater without a life jacket,"

http://www.azdailysun.com/news/local/article_453e6398-66ec-5be7-87b7-428db894f580.html

All I can say is "buddy, try to avoid either avalanches or swimming the Grand Canyon without a life jacket." Glad he's safe.

The Time Shift

Most of you should have changed your clocks last night, but those of us in Arizona didn't. We changed out time zone. I'm now back in the Pacific time zone, and I feel much better.

Baseball Today

Sweaterman and I are going south for some spring training baseball. We'll be seeing the Kansas City Royals play the Seattle Mariners in Peoria today, and the Dodgers versus the Diamondbacks in Tucson tomorrow.

Given all the snow we've had in Flagstaff this winter, it's going to feel really nice to bask in the sunshine and watch the games. In fact, I think we should be able to write the trip off as a medical expense. Therapy for winter depression, I believe.

Posting unlikely until Sunday, I'm guessing.

Friday Boobies

How to plant an egg.

Stockholm Syndrome

I'm out to see Stockholm Syndrome tonight.
I can't get the videos to embed, but here are a couple of links:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-FDoprLho
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHFXM58k5w0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMqkYSPkwbk
This is the best band that will never get famous that I've ever seen. Fearguth, I wish you were here.
(added: the third video is by far the best. "American Fork" is a song I can relate to.)

Very Sad News

One of America's most colorful activists has left us:

Former U.S. Senate candidate and longtime political activist Doris "Granny D" Haddock has died. She was 100.

Haddock gained national recognition when she walked across the country to call attention to the issue of campaign finance reform. The trip started in 1999 and ended in 2000.

"At 90 years old, I walked across the country -- 3,200 miles," she told News 9 in a January interview. "I walked every step."

Born in Laconia in a time when there was no electricity and only two cars were on the street, Haddock said that she wanted to be an actress but was asked to leave college when she got married in 1930.

"I set up a one-man show and went around to the various small villages in New England and did a stand-up show," she said. "My word, I haven't told anyone about that in years."

Reaction to news of Haddock's death came in swiftly from Granite State political figures.

"Doris 'Granny D' Haddock was eloquent, funny, powerful -- and one of a kind," said U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes. "New Hampshire lost a hero tonight, and while Granny D will be truly missed, she will never be forgotten."

http://www.wmur.com/news/22792574/detail.html#

I got to meet Granny D. during her 1999 walk, and again in 2000 at a campaign rally, and I found her to be a truly delightful person. She was quietly fiery, if such a contradiction in descriptions is possible. Always charming, she was dedicated to reforming the campaign system so that we might actually elect people who truly represent us. An idealistic crusade to be sure, but one she advocated with great courage and character.

She will truly be missed.

You're Weird, Dude

The saga of Eric Massa's (D-NY) resignation has been a very strange one. But one thing is now clear: he's a very strange man. Here's a description of his appearance with the incredibly weird Glenn Beck, where Massa out 'weirds' even Beck.
Massa flat out admits that he 'groped" and 'tickled' male staff members, and that he told a staff member, after 'about 15 gin and tonics' "I should be fracking you", although he insisted it wasn't "sexual". Three staff members made "sexual harassment" charges with the house ethics committee.
Whether "sexual" or not, that is exceedingly inappropriate behavior. No supervisor should ever 'grope' an employee, regardless of intent. That should be obvious to anybody with a normal amount of respect for others. But in Massa's hedonistic bubble it was "no big deal", although he sort of, kind of admitted that it was a "mistake."
And, '15 G-andT's'? That's serious alcoholic territory, and a sign that you're clearly unfit for office, IMHO.

Un-Post

Sorry, but I'm in a foul mood. William Kristol, Tom Delay, Liz Cheney, et. al. show up on my TV. But they're not on trial. They are instead promoted as "experts", and taken "very seriously" by somebody.
That is just wrong.
But I'm not up to writing a good post about it all.
I have a toothache.
I blame it on the republicans.

The "Open Carry" Question

Yesterday I went to the local grocery store. Nothing unusual about that. But as I'm standing in the checkout line, I notice that the man in front of me is openly wearing a large revolver (looked like a Colt, but I didn't ask) on his side. Which is perfectly legal here in Arizona. But is it sensible? I mean, this is Flagstaff, the epitome of "safe". And the guy with the sidearm appeared to be young, solid, and healthy (and very white, not that it matters); not a likely victim of violence.

"Open Carry" laws have been getting a little more notice lately, with NRA members wearing their guns into Starbucks, and 'Tea Party Patriots' taking their sidearms to political rallies. There are many 2nd amendment advocates circulating the (baseless) paranoia that Obama wants to 'take their guns away', leading to a boom in gun sales.

I find that I have mixed feelings about "Open Carry" in action. I'm a gun owner myself, but I have no inclination to carry my pistol around in public. I don't feel threatened in my life, but I could see how that could change if it became common that almost everyone around me were openly armed. Put simply, for self-defense I'm used to relying on my physical size and ugliness, and the fact that I live in a low crime city. I become more nervous about the uncertainty of the mental stability of someone if I see that they are armed, especially when there's no logical reason for them to be. Heinlien's old adage that "an armed society is a polite society" neglects to point out that it is also a very nervous society. The more armed people around, the more likely that one of those armed people is unstable. That is what I'm uncomfortable with.

I grew up with guns around, and was taught strict gun safety. Only carry a gun if you're planning on using it, and only point it at something you intend to shoot. Those rules work fine for hunting and target practice. I'm assuming that the people who carry guns in public feel that they "might need it" for self defense, no matter how incredibly unlikely that is. Hell, the gun is the most likely thing to be stolen from them.

I realize that there could be individual situations that leave a person feeling threatened, such as domestic violence issues. For all I know, the shopper in front of me might be worried that his lover's husband was after him. But I'm not convinced that this is the common motivation. Fear is frequently an irrational emotion. There's a very real difference between a specific threat and a vague unspecific (and usually unreal) threat. It would be nice to be able to ask each person carrying a gun what exactly they are defending themselves against, because I doubt that it's a 'specific' for most of them.

Again, I find that my feeling are mixed: I do believe in the right to keep and bear arms, but I have doubts about the sensibility of guns in mainstream public life. I may be wrong, but it strikes me that more weapons make violence more likely, not less.

And totally aside: the gentleman at the grocery store was buying about a dozen boxes of "pop tarts" and a head of celery. I shouldn't question another person's dietary choices, but really?

I Am (as usual) Confused

There's something strange about republican imagery and fundraising tactics that I don't quite understand. Some Republican goofball left a copy of an RNC fundraising presentation in a Florida hotel room, and now everyone can see it. The power point slide above seems to be getting the most attention, and it is rather amusing in a very weird sort of way. But I'm not sure that I 'get' the author's intention.
Okay, I can understand the "Obama as the Joker" image has some propaganda value. Rather childish, but I can see how the caricature implies "evil". The same for the "Pelosi as Cruella" image; silly, but I get the point.
Now to the parts I don't understand: Pelosi and Reid as "American Gothic"? This is supposed to imply...what? That they're like a classic portrayal of "Americana"? That they're "old"? (Not exactly a campaign tactic that helps republicans, in my opinion). That Harry Reid carries a pitchfork? This hurts them how?
And the caricature of Harry Reid as "Scooby-Doo" leaves me really confused. I'm certainly no expert on "Scooby-Doo", but I did see the cartoon in my youth. A large, goofy dog with a "snack dependency" (I always thought it was a thinly veiled drug reference) who bumbles around, but is always the "hero" by the end of the show. Correct me if I'm right, but Scooby always solves the mystery and stops the villain in the end. So is the point that Harry Reid is a clumsy hero? That he's a snack addict? My understanding of the parody is unclear. Making an analogy that Harry Reid is a "good guy" doesn't strike me as all that damning. If anything, comparing Harry to Scooby is more complimentary to him than a lot of things I might say about him; I have my doubts that he'll 'save the day' at the end of the episode.
I do understand the use of caricature in political attacks; it's a very old technique (Thomas Nast springs to mind). But this amateurish attempt is beyond feeble. Pelosi and Reid are both rather easy targets for parody in reality, but this attempt seems to completely miss the shot.
Am I missing something?

Marching Boobies

It's Friday, it's March. Therefore, March-ing Boobies.

Nearly America's Most Powerful Atheist

With Charley Rangel stepping down, I was so hoping that Pete Stark would become chairman of the House Ways and Means committee. Alas, he chose to avoid the controversy:

Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA) won't take the helm of the House Ways and Means Committee after top Dems expressed worry he would become a lightening rod for controversy and GOP criticism.

Stark was in line to take the post from Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), who stepped down yesterday amid ethics controversies. In his place, Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI), the third-ranking Dem on the panel, will take over.

Stark has a history of making controversial statements. Last year, during a town hall meeting, he told a constituent who opposed health care reform that he wouldn't "dignify you by peeing on your leg. It wouldn't be worth wasting the urine."

In private meetings yesterday, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen and other Dems expressed their concern to Stark and openly wondered whether he would be able to win a vote of the full Dem caucus. Stark agreed to step aside after those meetings, sources told Hotline OnCall.

Levin, by the way, will have some help as he figures out how to wield his first gavel over a full committee. His brother, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), chairs the upper chamber's Armed Services Committee.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/03/stark_wont_take.php

Too bad; I've always had a special liking for the irascible Stark. He's the only self-avowed atheist in congress, and a very outspoken "no bullshit" liberal. It would have been quite entertaining to watch him chair the heavily lobbied 'Ways and Means' committee, which is among the most significant posts in congress.
(Disclosure: I've had many contacts with congressman Stark over the years; he represents the district where my mother lived, and defeated my father for a state assembly seat many, many years ago. I've always admired his integrity and liked him personally.)

A Loss to the Blogging Community

The blogger known as Jon Swift has left us.
I can't say I had much of a connection with Jon/Al, but I did enjoy reading his biting satire. I feel slightly bad that I dropped him from the blogroll as part of my most recent update, based on there being no new posts in almost a year. It's a sad loss for the community of bloggers, and my heart goes out to his family and friends.

The Lady And The Knuckleball

It's March, and time for baseball. Here's a baseball story that I found heartwarming:

The fraternity of knuckleball pitchers is small, and Tim Wakefield of the Boston Red Sox is its active godfather.

Eri Yoshida hopes to expand that roster and break the gender barrier at the same time.

Yoshida, the petite 18-year-old who became the first female drafted by a Japanese professional team, Kobe 9 Cruise of the Kansai Independent Baseball League, made her pro debut on March 26, 2009, at the Osaka Dome. She learned how to throw a knuckleball as a young girl by watching video of Wakefield.

On Tuesday, at the Red Sox player development complex, Yoshida, wearing a gray Boston T-shirt with Wakefield's name and number on the back, met her idol and pitched with him.

"I'm impressed," Wakefield said. "She spun a couple, but for the most part it was very good. She was able to take the spin out of a lot of them and they had quite a lot of movement on them."

Yoshida, who stands 5-foot-1 and throws her knuckleball with a sidearm motion, is in the United States to pitch in the independent Arizona Winter League. She got her first win on Feb. 12, tossing four shutout innings for the Yuma Scorpions. But she admitted she was nervous working with the 43-year-old Wakefield.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4961259&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

(cool video at the link, BTW)

At age 18 and 5'1", Eri Yoshida has already progressed further than any female before her in professional baseball. The knuckleball is notoriously difficult to pitch, and almost impossible to hit. I know that when I faced a knuckler in college ball (many years ago, and I only faced one), I realized that there was absolutely no way that I could hit the pitch. So I basically took every pitch and hoped that I could draw a walk (knuckleball's are hard to throw for strikes).

So here's wishing Eri the very best of success in her career. Even if she doesn't become a star, maybe she'll inspire more young women into baseball.

Kirkpatrick Proposes Pay Cut

Color me slightly surprised: My congresswoman, Ann Kirkpatrick is proposing a congressional pay cut:

Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is today launching a push to make Members of Congress show a personal commitment to cutting federal spending. She is introducing the Taking Responsibility for Congressional Pay Act, which will cut pay for all Senators and Representatives by five percent starting January 1, 2011. If the bill is passed into law, Member salaries will be reduced for the first time since April 1, 1933, in the midst of the Great Depression.

“Families across the country are getting by on lower wages and finding ways to cut back during the downturn, and these are the folks that pay our salaries. The federal government’s budget is in much worse shape, so why shouldn’t senators and representatives have to feel the same pinch?” asked Rep. Kirkpatrick.

http://kirkpatrick.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=855:rep-kirkpatrick-introduces-bill-to-cut-pay-for-members-of-congress-by-five-percent-fighting-against-business-as-usual-in-washington&catid=37:press-releases&Itemid=92

The proposal itself is fine, but I'm surprised that it's Ann making it. In her time in congress, she's been mostly a milquetoast moderate, and has made very few legislative proposals. She's been the epitome of the "nice, polite democrat" and avoided any controversy.

So, does this proposal mean anything? Not really. A 5% congressional pay cut would be a purely symbolic gesture in terms of deficit reduction. It would look good for a campaign photo-op, though. I seriously doubt that it will pass, or even get out of committee, unless a number of more powerful congress critters decide that it could help their re-election bids.

But what the heck, it's actually kinda nice to see Ann taking some action. Even a symbolic gesture is a bolder move than what I'm used to from her.

Olympics Final

(nope; not even in curling.)

I saw this over at Outside the Interzone, and had to pass it on. Lockwood is a genius.

Talking To A Texan

Those who know me know that my youngest sister lives in Texas, and is my exact opposite on almost every issue political, religious, or philosophical. She's a 'fundamentalist christian' right wing proud 'tea party patriot', so when we happened to be on the phone last evening, I wanted her take on the Texas Governor's primary. Most all of us have crazy family, but I find myself seeking to find out which flavor of crazy I'm related to. It's a bad habit.

She didn't disappoint me. "I'll never vote for Perry. He's a LIBERAL!" she said. And she thinks Kay Bailey Hutchinson will take her guns away (not a bad idea, really...except she doesn't actually have any guns...and nobody is trying to take them away today.) Really, when Perry is too "liberal" for you, what choice do you have?

So I asked her about Debra Medina. She had never heard of her.

Then I asked her who'd she vote for: she sort of "forgot" to register to vote, so she wont be voting. Which made me laugh. She sends me around a dozen "tea party" type emails every week. But didn't bother to register to vote.

In a way, I find that reassuring.

The Quiet Zone

Yesterday, I didn't quite notice what I wasn't hearing: train horns. Beginning yesterday, downtown Flagstaff became a "quiet zone" where trains don't blow their horns at each intersection. I live two blocks from the train tracks, and I've lived around downtown for so many years that I barely notice the noise, but with an average around 70 trains a day, the constant blaring can get annoying. Still, it's somewhat odd to not hear something I was so used to. And at least one conductor didn't get the memo, or couldn't quite break the habit.

March

Thank you calendar gods for putting an end to February, the most dismal month of the year. March brings the promise of Spring, and, of course, the return of baseball. I feel better already.

Never Too Old To Rock n' Roll

Went out to see moe. last night. Wonderful show. But bouncing back from dancing 'til 1:00 am seems to get a little tougher with each passing year. Aging ain't for sissies, I tell ya'.

Things Which Shouldn't Exist

Trust me: Tofu Wrestling should not exist.

Morning in Hawaii

Residents of Hawaii are waking up to tsunami warning in the wake of an 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Chile. People in the coastal regions are evacuating to higher ground. Wow. I'm an early riser myself, but it's hard to imagine starting a Saturday morning by running for the hills. At least the early warning system appears to be working effectively (those damn taxes) so far.
Too early to tell the extent of the damage and the loss of life in Chile, but it's certainly going to be huge. At least, in comparison to Haiti, Chile has a working infrastructure and a disaster response system in place.

Fun Friday Statistics

OK, everyone's seen the E-trade commercial with the talking baby who chastizes his friend Frank for playing the lottery for his financial security and gives him the "shocked face" when he doesn't win. But the baby also poses the question about his odds as: "You realize the odds of winning are the same as being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear in the same day?"

For some reason, this probability statement strikes me as particularly hilarious, but also one that could possibly be calculated, so I decided to give it a try, although estimates are hard to come by in this arena.

From what I could claw up on the web, there have been 3 polar bear attacks in Alaska in the last 115 years. Given the current (rough) tourist rate of 2.5 million visitors a year and extrapolating backwards, your odds of a polar bear attack (in Alaska) is roughly 0.000000012, which is small. Note that I didn't try to accurately map the tourism increase in AK over the past 115 years; I'm just roughing the calculations here.

According to some web-based Yellowstone statistic, your odds of being mauled by a grizzly (the regular bear, which leaves out blacks and browns, I know) is 1 in 1.9 million (or 0.00000053).

Thus the odds of being mauled by both - not on the same day, just in your lifetime - is the product of those two, which leads to an extremely low probability of 6.36 x 10^-15 (or 0.00000000000000636). I skipped trying to extrapolate to mauling on the same day, because I'm assuming the first mauling results in fatality, so you'd never have to face that second mauling within 24 hours.

How low is that? Well, according to several sites on the web, the total number of humans (homo sapiens) that have ever lived/been born is roughly 106 billion (106,456,367,669 if you want accuracy). You can look at these sites if you're more interested in human population history:

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx

http://www.math.hawaii.edu/~ramsey/People.html

But the reality of it is that the total population is 1.06 x 10^11, so being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear probably hasn't yet happened to a human being.

I nominate Dick Cheney or Henry Kissinger to be the first.

The Coffee Party

You knew that there had to be an alternative to the Tea Party insanity; now, behold the "Coffee Party":

Our message to Congress: You work for us, not for corporations. We hired you and we get to fire you. We pay you and give you great health insurance. Now get to work serving the interests of the American people, or get out.

Anyone who wants our government to function in the interest of ordinary Americans, not corporations, is welcome to join this movement.

It's not about coffee or tea. It's about this simple question: are we as Americans getting the leadership and representation we need from our elected officials? If we can all agree we have, increasingly, not been well represented, how do we change this?
Many Americans reject the idea of working with the federal government or participating responsibly in the democratic process. For whatever reason, they have declared war on our government, and on our President. This is a destructive path.

Our focus is on the democratic process. We want to encourage everyone--no matter their positions on issues--to participate in the process in a civil and responsible way.

We want the political process broken down into three steps:
1) open and respectful dialogue
2) thoughtful and informed deliberation
3) competent and decisive execution.

http://coffeepartyusa.com/blog/11

While I somehow doubt that logic can have an impact on our current political circus, I do wish that this could work. We'll see if this has any legs, but I'll keep taking a look at them. After all, I much prefer coffee to tea.

Curling Medal Rounds

Today we get the women's medal rounds, with Switzerland facing China for the bronze this morning. Sweden will battle Canada for the gold this afternoon (guess who the bird will be cheering for).

And the men's medal round tomorrow pairs Sweden and Switzerland for the bronze, while Canada and Norway will compete for the gold.

Were I a betting man (oh wait, I am) I'd be betting on a Canadian sweep. And after that, I'll have to wait four long years for the next episode of the excitement that is curling on my TV.

Added: Sweaterman just sent me another "Savage Chickens" curling cartoon. We could get away with doing this at the pub:

Update: China takes bronze, 12-6, with 4 in the eighth end. The Swiss concede.

A Guide to Boobies

It's Friday, so here's a guide to Boobies. It's important to know what you're looking at.

My Summit Analysis

While it doesn't count for much, I formed some opinions while watching the "health care summit" (yes, I have too much time on my hands) and they may not be in line with others. But that's why I have a blog.
Obama was who he is: smart, professorial, and coldly logical. He tried to have a fact based debate, assuming 'good faith', on where the plans were at. He offered concessions, again based on facts and logic. He was politely confrontational, which is a bit of a verbal art in its own right.
And he lost.
One of our largest problems is between 'government' and 'politics', where it becomes a game of "win/lose", rather than addressing problems. But that is the current situation. Talking points do now trump policy.
Obama lost because he's playing the wrong game. He's leading the debate club into a rugby scrum. He's assuming that an intelligent argument will actually persuade politicians who have bet their careers on not being persuaded. Intellectually he won, but emotionally he lost. Yeah, he had "facts" on his side, but reality doesn't matter to the right. He did try to use logic versus rhetoric; didn't work.
I do really wish that I lived in a world where logic and intelligence would lead policy. I also want a unicorn. And free dope for life.
The media will focus on the "Obama vs. McCain" confrontation, but I believe that was a sideshow. What I found exceptionally telling was at the end: Obama offered the repubs McConnell and Boehner a chance to make "closing statements" and both declined. Yes, Obama had already eviscerated there previous lies. But they mostly meant "we're against anything you're trying to do", but they don't intend to come right out and say it. I'm almost reminded of the line "you can't negotiate with...". Fill in the blank yourself, and you've probably named the current republican party.

Health Care Summit Theater

Will it accomplish anything? That's the real question. Can Obama make the debate move forward, or will it be theater and political grandstanding?

I will be watching, if for no other reason than that the summit is such an unusual political move. Given that health care reform has been up and down like a Kangaroo in the mating season, I have no prediction as to the outcome. I will be interested to see which rhetorical points each side chooses to focus on. Sadly, the whole process of health care reform has gotten stuck on "framing" rather than actually addressing the very real need to change our system.

We're a very strange country; we have no problem funding wars, but when it comes to taking care of our own people we talk about our deficit. It's a sick system.

Way Too Much Snow

Oh, my...I didn't even mention this weeks snow. It was only a few more inches, and I'm fucking sick of snow. But reading today's local news rag, I found out that we've gotten more snow than any other city in the continental U.S.:

Flagstaff is beating most U.S. cities large and small this year for snowfall, having already surpassed the average snowfall for an entire winter of 109 inches.

There has been 118 inches of snow -- nearly 10 feet -- here so far. The normal through Feb. 22 is 72 inches.

Among cities over 100,000 in population, Syracuse, N.Y., leads the list. But its 86 inches to date is nearly 3 feet less than Flagstaff, a city of about 60,000, has received.

Flagstaff -- 118

Syracuse, N.Y. -- 86

Baltimore -- 80

Burlington, Vt. -- 73.8

Philadelphia -- 73.1

Fort Collins, Colo. -- 68

Buffalo, N.Y. -- 67.5

Des Moines, Iowa -- 62.3

Washington, D.C. -- 56

Anchorage, Alaska -- 44.4

Minneapolis -- 40.6

Boston -- 35.4

Portland, Maine -- 35.4

Salt Lake City -- 25

http://www.azdailysun.com/news/local/article_ad473f70-a971-53aa-9bf4-171a81a8f624.html

We're 50 inches ahead of Fort Collins, CO. That is just not right. And we've got more coming.

March is typically Flagstaff's most snow-filled month, however, and national forecasters are giving better-than-average odds of more precipitation next month.

Can I scream now? Any wealthy readers want to by me a plane ticket to the Bahamas? Because I'm ready to run away from home.

Today in Curling

(thanks, Sweaterman, for sending me the cartoon)

Today we get a bonus, a tie breaker match in the men's division. Sweden will play Great Britain for the last spot in the finals. The lucky winner gets to play (undefeated) Canada in the semi-finals tomorrow. No tie breaker needed on the women's side.

Unclear on the Concept

There's 'dumb', there's 'really dumb', and the there's John Boehner, who's made quite a career of saying very stupid things. His latest whopper should when some kind of prize for "doublespeak":

President Obama is arranging a bipartisan health care summit Thursday to allow both parties to have a venue to discuss their “best ideas” for reform. Republicans have since been sending “mixed signals” about the President’s invitation, continuing to urge bipartisanship but decrying the President’s attempt at it, sometimes in the very same press release. House Minority Leader John Boehner suggested that the summit was “some kind of trap.” Rep. Tom Price called it a “Hollow PR Blitz.” Now that House GOP leaders have finally committed to attending, however, they’re facing a new PR problem: selling the decision to their own caucus. Minority Leader John Boehner took his best shot, telling his conference today that he has decided to attend in order to “crash the party:”

According to a House GOP leadership aide familiar with the top-ranking Republican’s remarks at the weekly closed-door conference meeting, Boehner appealed to skeptical Republican lawmakers, saying, “We shouldn’t let the White House have a six-hour taxpayer-funded infomercial on ObamaCare. We need to show up. We need to crash the party.”

http://thinkprogress.org/2010/02/23/boehner-summit-party-crash/

Uhm, Mr. Boehner...you were invited. "Crashing" a party where you are a "guest of honor" sounds rather idiotic. I realize that you are a professional dickhead, and that you think your job is to say outlandish shit in opposition to the president, but couldn't you at least try to make sense?

Of course, this is the same John Boehner who criticized the health care bill for being "too long", then criticized the Obama proposal for being "too short"; complained that republican proposals weren't being considered and then refused to put forward any actual proposals. He demanded "details" and "starting from scratch, with a blank piece of paper" all within the same week.

And somehow he's taken seriously. Which is sad. I understand the use of political rhetoric in the debate, but idiotic rhetoric?

Added: Over at Rumproast, marindenver put up a similar, but much better post. Read it here:

http://www.rumproast.com/index.php/site/comments/leader_boehner_were_going_to_crash_health_reform_party/

Underwhelming

The Senate achieved cloture on the "jobs" bill, by a vote of 62-30. Yay, I suppose. The newbie truck driving cosmo centerfold 'bravely' crossed party lines, causing multiple tantrums at tea parties.

In reality, the $15 billion bill won’t do much to create jobs. It's a weak effort in the face of near 10% unemployment, like taking an aspirin when you have a double compound fracture. Better than nothing, but no where near enough to address the problem.

Politically, it's somewhat perplexing that 30 senators would vote against "jobs" at a time like this. Opposing "jobs" should be political suicide. But that's our current situation. Gridlock and obstruction are seen by one party to be preferable to attempting to solve problems.

I suppose I should feel some happiness that the senate actually got a step closer to actually do something, but this bill is very weak tea.

Didn't Know That

Regardless of gender, J.D. is still ugly.

Or, to quote Cat in Red Dwarf:

"Are you telling me that he's a transvestite? With those hips?"

(Thanks Sweaterman for sending me the pic.)

A Curling Update

Well, yesterday was simply a disaster for the US curling teams. The men lost to Great Britain, 4-2, and the women...well, the women's team probably wants to just forget the whole day. Lost 9-2 to Canada in the morning and 9-3 to Sweden in the evening. At least the women have a 'bye' today. Both teams are effectively eliminated from medal contention, the men tied for eighth with 2 wins, 5 losses, and the women tied for last, also with 2 wins, 5 losses. Today the men play Canada in the morning (a likely blowout) and China in the evening.

On the men's side, Canada (7-0) and Norway (5-2) are the leaders, with Great Britain, Switzerland, and Sweden still in the hunt. For the women, Canada and Sweden are tied for the lead, both 5-1, and China is 4-2. Look for Canada to potentially sweep, as both teams are very strong.

Now for a story about the phenomenon that is curling fandom: At the start of the Olympic curling matches, Sweaterman and I (and a couple of other friends) would meet up at our local pub to watch the afternoon match and have a pint. Each day we end up explaining the strategy and skills of the game to a few folks around us. And many of them become interested, and have begun joining us each day. By yesterday, the bar was rather crowded with curling fans, cheering and shouting and groaning with each end. The place has become a semi-official curling bar. Needless to say, the pubs owners have become big fans of curling.

My Canadian Bird

I have come to the conclusion that Grizelda, my bird, is actually Canadian. I base this on the fact that she boisterously sings along anytime "Oh, Canada" comes on as we watch the Olympics. She doesn't do this for any other songs, and completely ignores the "Star-Spangled Banner" (which I can sort of understand; it is rather un-singable). Her taste in music is different than mine; she likes avant-garde jazz, which I'm rarely in the mood for, and ignores jam rock, which I usually play. But because I'm a good people, I've downloaded several versions of "Oh, Canada" for her pleasure. She may not sing well, but she sure does sing loud when she hears any of them.

So I have a very rare type of bird, the Canadian Grey Cockatiel.

Laughing At CPAC

(typical CPAC reptile)

Ah, the CPAC convention, where conservatives and republicans unite to promote their message. Or at least make fun of liberals and progressives, like all "real Americans" do.
Except there seems to be a mix-up in the message. Everybody agreed that Obama's use of teleprompters is hilarious because they got great laughs when they read the jokes off of their teleprompters. And health care reform is bad, and will probably kill us all. Tim Pawlenty advocated taking a "nine-iron" to the government, and Human Events editor Jed Babbin Cracks Jokes About TX Suicide Attack, showing that conservative humor is alive and well, sick.
But after that, things got a little more divisive. One of the co-sponsors was the John Birch society, a group so extreme and toxic that almost no one at the convention admits that they exist. Another co-sponsor, GOProud, the gay republican group, was strongly condemned by the group California Young Americans for Freedom, whose main cause is opposing the "gay agenda" (yeah, they're for 'freedom' as long as it's not 'gay'; semantics is not a republican value). "Man on Dog" Rick Santorum lashed out at the military leaders who want to repeal DADT, which was somewhat in contrast with the usual reverence the right has for the military. They had panels discussing how to get rid of immigrants and how to recruit more minority support on the same day. Good luck with that pairing.
But the best part was the "straw poll" on who they would support for president in 2012. And the winner was...Ron Paul (Read the full poll here. PDF), who beat out Mitt Romney (winner of the last three CPAC polls), 31% to 22%. And judging from the boos from the crowd when the results were announced, the CPAC'ers don't agree with their own. In fairness, only 2,395 straw poll votes were cast by what organizers said was 10,000 attendees at this year's CPAC., which makes me wonder how much of a political force they expect to be. If you can only get a 24% turnout of attendees who are physically in the house, do you really think that you can motivate your "base" on election day? When it might be raining? Or 'American Idol' might be on TV?
If these wackos ever actually got organized, I would be frightened. But as long as they remain a circus of clowns, I do find them amusing.

Odds or Ends

Various thoughts today that I'm not quite thinking enough about for a separate post, but they're crossing my little mind...

= the Dutch government has collapsed, because the two parties couldn't come to an agreement. Here in America, we call that "status quo".

= a famous golfer admits to multiple sexual affairs, and it's the most important news in the world. I really wouldn't care, but I have to admit that I'm jealous.

= Alexander Haig has died. He was the slimy weasel who orchestrated the pardon of Richard Nixon, and Reagan's SOS, but he actually looks rather sane compared to today's conservatives.

= the US men's and women's curling teams finally won one each yesterday. The men should really thank Vernon Davis. More curling today, so I am happy.

Any odd things on your mind today?

Medical Marijuana Works

Finally, some real science to back up what many of us already knew; yes, medical marijuana really does work:

With the results of a medical study summarized by a new report delivered to the California state legislature, the California Center for Medicinal Cannabis Research (CMCR) claims it has established scientific proof that inhaled cannabis holds medical value at or above the level of conventional prescription medicines used for a variety of ailments.

"As a result of the vision and foresight of the California State Legislature Medical Marijuana Research Act(SB847), the CMCR has successfully conducted the first clinical trials of smoked cannabis in the United States in more than 20 years," the group said in the study's conclusion summary. "As a result of this program of systematic research, we now have reasonable evidence that cannabis is a promising treatment in selected pain syndromes caused by injury or diseases of the nervous system, and possibly for painful muscle spasticity due to multiple sclerosis."

"'There is good evidence now that cannabinoids (the active compounds in the marijuana plant) may be either an adjunct or a first-line treatment for … neuropathy,' said Dr. Igor Grant, Director of the CMCR, at a news conference at the state Capitol,'" according to Salem-News. "He added that the efficacy of smoked marijuana was 'very consistent,' and that its pain-relieving effects were 'comparable to the better existing treatments' presently available by prescription."

http://rawstory.com/2010/02/medical-studies-show-cannabis-compound-effective-treating-pain-spasms/

One of the most infuriating parts of the whole medical marijuana debate was that opponents could argue that "there's no scientific evidence", because of the reality that almost no research had been conducted. The political and legal restrictions prohibited it. So the evidence for the efficacy of medical marijuana was purely "anecdotal", even though there were many thousands of people reporting relief for a variety of symptoms. As more states have legalized medical marijuana, more and more patients have found it effective. Funny how that works.
I've said many times that while you could have a reasonable debate about recreational marijuana (though I'm for legalization), but that human compassion dictates that medical marijuana should be legal. I know that it works for me.

Beyond Politics: Mental Health

By now, you're all aware that one Joseph Andrew Stack flew a plane into the Austin IRS office, after setting his house on fire and leaving behind a lengthy anti-government screed. And around the blogosphere there's extensive speculation about the "politics" behind the act. Was he a "tea partier" or a "terrorist"? Can we use him to score political points? The same dynamic occurred after the Alabama university shootings, the Ft. Hood shooting, and pretty much every other case of senseless violence in recent years.

But I'm seeing this from a very different perspective. For my newer readers, a bit of background: I was a mental health counselor for about 15 years, working primarily with extremely disturbed and violent individuals. A lot of my work focused on violence prevention, anger management, and suicide prevention (which are usually intertwined), so I'm inclined to look at incidents like this in a different light.

The general narrative when something like this happens is that the person "snapped", and they "snapped" because of "XYZ". It's a narrative that completely misses the actual problem. Almost every time, after further investigation, others reveal that the person had been "increasingly withdrawn", "acting strangely", "expressing paranoia or delusional", or exhibiting other behavioral changes prior to committing the violent act. Signs that, in hindsight, the person was about to snap.

Which brings me to a greatly under-reported problem: our current mental health treatment system is in shambles. Clinics are grossly under-funded, counselors are overburdened with huge caseloads, and treatment rarely goes beyond prescription medications. Counseling often isn't covered by insurance, and only rarely available to the uninsured.

Here's a simple exercise: imagine that someone close to you, a friend or family member (or even acquaintance or coworker), began exhibiting symptoms that had you worried that they might be about to do something extreme (even merely suicidal). Where would you turn? Assuming that you could get the person to agree to "get help"(involuntary treatment is a whole separate issue, so I'm not addressing it in this post), is there any real treatment available? Unless the person is fairly well off, the answer is probably "no". Community mental health centers are grossly under-resourced and overburdened, and are generally limited to crisis intervention, not prevention.

While better treatment won't eliminate all acts of senseless violence (human behavior is not an exact science), could some of these be prevented? I believe so. In the wake of the Virginia Tech shootings, what few mental health records that were released revealed that the shooter exhibited multiple warning signs, but that the treatment was woefully inadequate. A prescription for an anti-depressant, but no follow up counseling. And a lot of dead innocent people.

Sadly, incidents like this are going to continue to occur. Nothing is being done in the current system to prevent them. Regardless of the politics of the person who "snaps".

A Boobie in the Morning

Friday morning, looking up.

Converations in My Life

So I'm having a conversation at my favorite pub with a woman who's been a friend for many years, but who I hadn't hung out with for a while. As follows:

Woman friend: "I'm sick of reality TV. If we're going to have reality entertainment, I wanna go full Roman. I want 'Christians versus lions' in 3-D"

Me: "We're gonna need a hell of a lot more lions."

Her: "Yeah, that could be a problem. We'll probably piss off PETA if we do that."

The rest of the conversation will not be posted, on advice of our favorite lawyer, who was on the next bar stool. But I do think that a lot more lions are needed.

The Dark Lord and the Minions

The crazies at CPAC got a surprise visit from their evil master. Dick "the dick" Cheney was greeted with cheers:

Former Vice President Dick Cheney just made a surprise appearance at CPAC after his daughter, Liz Cheney, finished her speech.

The crowd went wild, standing up and cheering for several minutes before he began talking. One man yelled, "Four more years!"

"Knock it off!" Cheney said. "A welcome like that is almost enough to make me want to run for office again. But I'm not gonna do it."

He spoke briefly and offered his predictions for the November mid-terms.

"2010 is going to be a phenomenal year, and I think Barack Obama is a one-term president," he said to wild applause.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02/cheney-makes-surprise-appearance-at-cpac.php?ref=fpb

These people are seriously nuts. The man is a self-admitted war criminal who did more damage to America during his eight years in office than any other individual in history. The man who came right out and said that he wanted more waterboarding (in clear violation of international law), and that shrub was "too soft" on terrorists.
But I shouldn't be surprised; the CPAC people are merely better organized tea partiers. They started their conference off with jokes about Obama's use of a teleprompter...being read from a teleprompter.



Yet another reason for health care reform: maybe we could get some of these barking loonies on the proper medications.
Added: Damn, why is it that almost every time I write political snark, Rachel Maddow riffs on the same topic...she does it so much better than I do.